New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sector performance was mixed over the last three months.</li><li>Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN (+1%) and IAG (-3%).</li><li>We lift our TWR target price +2% to NZ$2.40, primarily reflecting a +5% uplift in peer comparable valuations since February, with peers now trading at a median 12-month forward PE of 14.8x.</li></ul>

Sector performance was mixed over the last three months.Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN (+1%) and IAG (-3%).We lift our TWR target price +2% to NZ$2.40, primarily reflecting a +5% uplift in peer comparable valuations since February, with peers now trading at a median 12-month forward PE of 14.8x.

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 15—Normal Seasonality Returns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11226:1" rel="noopener">Royal Gold</a> are deletions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47602:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Resources (GGP AU)</a> is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Pan American Silver and Royal Gold are deletions from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF while Greatland Resources (GGP AU) is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.</li>
<li>If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a>.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.
If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. </li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025. 


[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

<ul>
<li>No constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest flows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alamos-gold-inc-75888dd6-1d65-427e-950c-393b5d90ab2e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38624:1" rel="noopener">Alamos Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd-d293fe94-bbca-4158-9fbf-32bc457dfbcd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28569:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eldorado-gold-corp-e1b47e21-d9a5-4258-bd94-49cbea7538ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38673:1" rel="noopener">Eldorado Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k92-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43238:1" rel="noopener">K92 Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iamgold-corp-5935fec7-fa4d-4edb-bfdb-971f391ebb16" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38714:1" rel="noopener">IAMGOLD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38789:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources</a>.</li>
</ul>


No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

United States

IAMGOLD Corporation is a mid-tier gold mining company. The Company is focused in West Africa, the Guiana Shield of South America and in Quebec where it has a pipeline of development and exploration projects.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

IAMGOLD (IAG US)

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 15—Normal Seasonality Returns

Sector performance was mixed over the last three months. Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN...

Forsyth Barr

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

The index rebalances at the close today. With gold trading lower since rebalance announcement and another big down move overnight (though off the...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

There could be 6 adds resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.8% and a round-trip trade of US$5.7bn. There will be capping inflows to the...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index rebalances twice a year. It is an interesting index as it has an upper cutoff AND caps. For March, there's one...

Travis Lundy

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)