Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Brazilian 1Q19 GDP growth was -0.2% qoq, +0.5% yoy, a negative surprise for the market</li>
<li>Pension reform, although slow, is progressing and both executive and legislature are more engaged</li>
<li>Brazil Bank sector trends to April-end show loan growth acceleration, controlled delinquency and steady lending spreads</li>
<li>We reiterate our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a> , for its value attributes and potential to deliver better returns going forward, and potential disposals of non-core interests boosting capital</li>
</ul>


Brazilian 1Q19 GDP growth was -0.2% qoq, +0.5% yoy, a negative surprise for the market
Pension reform, although slow, is progressing and both executive and legislature are more engaged
Brazil Bank sector trends to April-end show loan growth acceleration, controlled delinquency and steady lending spreads
We reiterate our positive view on Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ) , for its value attributes and potential to deliver better returns going forward, and potential disposals of non-core interests boosting capital


Brazil GDP Contraction, Sluggish Progress on Pension Reform Overshadow Sound Bank Sector Trends

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote). While the weakness in factory output was seen ahead of the Brexit vote, the effect of UK’s exit is clearly felt in the aftermath, and it is expected to come in weaker going forward.Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone came in at 0.4% y-o-y in June 2016 similar to the growth seen…

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry is struggling to gain momentum which poses a risk to our GDP outlook of 1.3% for 2016 (lowered from 1.6% after the Brexit vote).Industrial Production (IPI) in the Eurozone slowed to 0.6% y-o-y in May 2016 after having recorded a growth of 2.1% y-o-y in April 2016 on a seasonally and working day adjusted (swda) basis. On a 3 month moving average (3mma)…

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The deal has now got green light from the SEC, FERC, Maine Public Utilities Commission, and seal of approval from ISS and Glass Lewis.</li>
<li>Pending are the approval of the New York Public Service Commission and shareholder approval (GM on September 26, which should just be a formality).</li>
<li>Spread is 0.46%/3.48% (gross/annualised) based on the closing share price of September 18 and assuming both a prorated dividend of $0.1467 and settlement on November 8. Long and tender.</li>
</ul>


The deal has now got green light from the SEC, FERC, Maine Public Utilities Commission, and seal of approval from ISS and Glass Lewis.
Pending are the approval of the New York Public Service Commission and shareholder approval (GM on September 26, which should just be a formality).
Spread is 0.46%/3.48% (gross/annualised) based on the closing share price of September 18 and assuming both a prorated dividend of $0.1467 and settlement on November 8. Long and tender.


Iberdrola/Avangrid: Almost All Conditions Met

Spain

Iberdrola S.A. generates, distributes, trades, and markets electricity in the United Kingdom, United States, Spain, Portugal, and Latin America.  The Company specializes in clean energy and more specifically wind power.

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Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Brazil GDP Contraction, Sluggish Progress on Pension Reform Overshadow Sound Bank Sector Trends

Brazilian 1Q19 GDP growth was -0.2% qoq, +0.5% yoy, a negative surprise for the market Pension reform, although slow, is progressing and both...

Victor Galliano

EUROZONE: Weak Industrial Production Poses Risk to GDP Growth

Industrial production in Eurozone continues to struggle to gain momentum and came in weaker than expected in June which poses a risk to our GDP...

Rajan Govil

EUROZONE: Industrial Production GROWTh Slows ACROSS SECTORS AND COUNTRIES

Weakness in industrial production growth in May was seen across most major sectors and economies, which clearly shows that the Euro Zone industry...

Rajan Govil

Iberdrola/Avangrid: Almost All Conditions Met

The deal has now got green light from the SEC, FERC, Maine Public Utilities Commission, and seal of approval from ISS and Glass Lewis.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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