Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.</li>
<li>This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.</li>
<li>Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.</li>
</ul>


News that chipmakers plan to relax the standard that determines the thickness of next-gen 20-layer HBM4 memory chips sent hybrid-bonding play BESI -17%.
This sent Teradyne -10.6%, Lam Research -7.2%, and AMAT -6.3%, and while the impact is more nuanced in Japan it will be indiscriminate risk-off across SPE to start.
Software bounced so this may see a defense bid, and I would be looking to be long JP utilities with nuclear restarts vs those still dependent on oil/gas fired plants.


Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

<ul>
<li>HP after the close taking a 7% hit with guidance reflecting its profitability struggles due to surging memory prices.</li>
<li>Citron Research goes short Sandisk claiming the NAND cycle is close to the top, with Samsung set to rebalance supply shortages.</li>
<li>Ibiden guidance looks light, but the secondary offering is small and will hardly touch the sides vs NVDA catalyst tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


HP after the close taking a 7% hit with guidance reflecting its profitability struggles due to surging memory prices.
Citron Research goes short Sandisk claiming the NAND cycle is close to the top, with Samsung set to rebalance supply shortages.
Ibiden guidance looks light, but the secondary offering is small and will hardly touch the sides vs NVDA catalyst tomorrow.


Japan Morning Connection: Meta Locks Down AMD Chip Supply with Eyes on Becoming a Major Holder

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Recruit, Mitsubishi Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Recruit, Mitsubishi Chemical.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Sep): Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Recruit

<ul>
<li>Expect the usual 'Takaichi trade' suspects to continue trading higher with the election result surpassing expectations.</li>
<li>US switches to risk, with tech and AI surging and NVDA clocking a +7.9% gain after the market decided big tech’s $650bn planned capex for 2026 wasn’t so bad.</li>
<li>Expect big gains for tech and SPE with the markets set to surge after US moves + election win.</li>
</ul>


Expect the usual 'Takaichi trade' suspects to continue trading higher with the election result surpassing expectations.
US switches to risk, with tech and AI surging and NVDA clocking a +7.9% gain after the market decided big tech’s $650bn planned capex for 2026 wasn’t so bad.
Expect big gains for tech and SPE with the markets set to surge after US moves + election win.


Japan Morning Connection: Takaichi Blows the Doors off and Secures a Super-Majority for the LDP

<ul>
<li>Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.</li>
<li>Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.</li>
<li>Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.
Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.
Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Brent Surges as Mojtaba Khamenei Is Voted in as Iran's Next Supreme Leader

Brent surges as high as $111 this morning as hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei in voted in as Iran's next supreme leader. After the dust settles SPE will...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Meta Locks Down AMD Chip Supply with Eyes on Becoming a Major Holder

Citron makes a (very) brave short bet against Sandisk. Intel up on news of strengthening ties with AI chip startup SambaNova and AMD investment news.

Andrew Jackson

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Sep): Toyota Motor, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, Recruit

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (9101 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: Takaichi Blows the Doors off and Secures a Super-Majority for the LDP

With risk sentiment shifted up, look to play the bounce with Lasertec which was -17% after earnings miss and Kioxia which was -11% last week.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

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