Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.</li>
<li>Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  </li>
<li>While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.</li>
</ul>


Taiyo Yuden underperformed its peers in electronic components by 29% over the past year, but its change in operating profit margin should outperform peers by 68% in the current year.
Exposure to the U.S. is less than 7% of direct sales, but probably 25% including indirect exposure. Still, based on supply/demand analysis, we think Yuden is probably tariff proof.  
While rivals have prioritized high-margin device modules to offset component sales declines, Yuden doubled down on its core capacitor and inductor strengths and appears to be coming out ahead.


Taiyo Yuden (6976):  A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.</li>
<li>Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.</li>
<li>Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.</li>
</ul>


STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.
Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.
Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

<ul>
<li>Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.</li>
<li>Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.</li>
<li>Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.</li>
</ul>


Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.
Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.
Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.


Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

<ul>
<li>NVDA and AMD saving the market after weak banks earnings set a sour tone.</li>
<li>Chips news a big win for demand for Samsung memory which should play well for Micronics.</li>
<li>Apple cutting a manufacturing deal with MP Materials reiterates importance of rare earths access.</li>
</ul>


NVDA and AMD saving the market after weak banks earnings set a sour tone.
Chips news a big win for demand for Samsung memory which should play well for Micronics.
Apple cutting a manufacturing deal with MP Materials reiterates importance of rare earths access.


Japan Morning Connection: Only Tech in the Green After Dovish Stance Against AI Chips to China

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>After the close today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.</li>
<li>This is not expected, but also not unexpected - it's exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn't a huge offering.</li>
<li>This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.</li>
</ul>


After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
This is not expected, but also not unexpected - it's exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn't a huge offering.
This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.


[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering - Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Big moves lower for power semi peers should see JP names lower, Intel failing to impress may follow through to Ibiden, IBM slumped but analyst...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Only Tech in the Green After Dovish Stance Against AI Chips to China

AI ecosystem given a lift by the US softening their stance on trade with China. Other sectors in the red after mixed earnings from banks...

Andrew Jackson

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering - Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

KKR - the largest holder - is selling just over 50% of its remaining holding in a US$600mm offering at a 7-8% discount. Expect it to be well over...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Taiyo Yuden (6976): A Slightly Different Path to Massively Higher Margins

​Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Big moves lower for power semi peers should see JP names lower, Intel failing to impress may follow through to Ibiden, IBM slumped but analyst...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Only Tech in the Green After Dovish Stance Against AI Chips to China

AI ecosystem given a lift by the US softening their stance on trade with China. Other sectors in the red after mixed earnings from banks...

Andrew Jackson

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering - Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

KKR - the largest holder - is selling just over 50% of its remaining holding in a US$600mm offering at a 7-8% discount. Expect it to be well over...

Travis Lundy

Taiyo Yuden's focus on core strengths is paying off with a projected 68% increase in operating profit this year. Low U.S. exposure makes it likely...