Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).</li>
<li>In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.</li>
<li>This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. </li>
</ul>


In June, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced they would delay the release of their yuho for three months because of an internal investigation into NIDEC FIR INTERNATIONAL (Italy).
In September they launched a special committee. Shares fell 22%. Last Thursday, the company cancelled its interim dividend. Today, the JPX designated Nidec as Security on Special Alert.
This is a VERY BIG DEAL. Nikkei225 deletes Nidec 5-Nov-2025, replaced by Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) (PAF 1.0x). Designation also triggers TOPIX deletion for Nidec, likely on 30 October. 


[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

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<ul>
  <li>Ibiden stands as a dominant force in the high-performance IC substrate market, strategically positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in AI and data centers through its key relationship with Nvidia.</li>
  <li>Recent financial performance has been robust, with Q1 FY25 results showing significant year-over-year growth, prompting management to upgrade the earnings outlook for FY25-27.</li>
  <li>Despite strong growth prospects and a leading market position, the company trades at a valuation discount to high-growth AI peers, presenting a compelling Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) opportunity, albeit with risks related to customer concentration and competitive pressures.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Ibiden stands as a dominant force in the high-performance IC substrate market, strategically positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in AI and data centers through its key relationship with Nvidia.
  Recent financial performance has been robust, with Q1 FY25 results showing significant year-over-year growth, prompting management to upgrade the earnings outlook for FY25-27.
  Despite strong growth prospects and a leading market position, the company trades at a valuation discount to high-growth AI peers, presenting a compelling Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) opportunity, albeit with risks related to customer concentration and competitive pressures.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) - Sep 2025

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.</li>
<li>Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.</li>
<li>Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Ibiden is transitioning from a cyclical electronics supplier to a core AI infrastructure enabler, with Nvidia-linked package substrates at the heart of its growth strategy.
Management expects AI substrate demand to nearly double in FY25 and is targeting a 150% production increase by 2027, underpinned by the Ono plant ramp from next month.
Despite ~18–19% EPS/EBITDA CAGR through FY27 and margins comparable to high-premium peers, Ibiden still trades at mid-tier multiples (21× forward P/E, ~6× EV/EBITDA), leaving scope for re-rating.


Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

<ul>
<li>Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.</li>
<li>Earnings Upgrade &amp; Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.</li>
</ul>


Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.
Earnings Upgrade &amp; Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.
Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.


Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

<ul>
<li>Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.</li>
<li>The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.</li>
<li>With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.</li>
</ul>


Over FY21–25, IBIDEN has delivered strong revenue and profit growth, with operating income rising ~44% and EPS growing ~34% despite cyclical pressures.
The company commands a dominant ~70–85% market share in AI/server IC substrates, led by Nvidia demand, and is expanding capacity at Ono and Gama plants to sustain leadership.
With a 17–21% EPS CAGR forecast and trading at ~26× P/E—well below high-growth peers—IBIDEN offers a compelling blend of quality growth and relative valuation comfort.


IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Nidec's accounting issues mean it gets the boot from TOPIX + Nikkei 225 in quick succession. That's 15% of TSO and ¥400bn to sell between 30 Oct...

Travis Lundy

Primer: Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) - Sep 2025

Ibiden stands as a dominant force in the high-performance IC substrate market, strategically positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in...

αSK

Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Rahul Jain

Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

Rahul Jain

IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

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[Japan Special] Ibiden (4062) Replaces Nidec (6594) In Nikkei 225 on Accounting - A VERY BIG DEAL

Nidec's accounting issues mean it gets the boot from TOPIX + Nikkei 225 in quick succession. That's 15% of TSO and ¥400bn to sell between 30 Oct...

Travis Lundy

Primer: Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) - Sep 2025

Ibiden stands as a dominant force in the high-performance IC substrate market, strategically positioned to capitalize on the secular growth in...

αSK

Ibiden: From Cyclical Supplier to Core AI Infrastructure Enabler

​Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Rahul Jain

Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation

​Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

Rahul Jain

IBIDEN Co., Ltd.: AI Substrate Leader with Strong Growth, Expanding Moat, and Valuation Upside

​IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...

Rahul Jain

Ibiden is shifting to AI infrastructure with Nvidia-linked substrates, aiming for production increase and potential re-rating despite current mid...

Ibiden's strong Q1 performance driven by AI/data-center demand leads to earnings upgrade and optimistic outlook, offering growth potential at...

IBIDEN shows strong revenue and profit growth, dominating AI/server IC substrate market with room for expansion, offering quality growth at a...