Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-india-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40138:1" rel="noopener">INOX India Limited (INOX IN)</a> ( or IWL) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-wind-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40911:1" rel="noopener">Inox Wind Energy (IWEL IN)</a> (or IWEL) have announced a merger, where IWEL will be amalgamated with IWL</li>
<li>The share swap ratio in the scheme of amalgamation gives a very evident arbitrage opportunity. </li>
<li>The arbitrage opportunity has become bigger than when announced in June 2023. While the strategy is still possible, we try to justify the market behaviour.</li>
</ul>



INOX India Limited (INOX IN) ( or IWL) and Inox Wind Energy (IWEL IN) (or IWEL) have announced a merger, where IWEL will be amalgamated with IWL
The share swap ratio in the scheme of amalgamation gives a very evident arbitrage opportunity. 
The arbitrage opportunity has become bigger than when announced in June 2023. While the strategy is still possible, we try to justify the market behaviour.


Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a>  management has provided long-term strategic guidance along with its 3Q24 results, which lays down a clear roadmap for the bank's progress.</li>
<li>The latest results are slightly below estimates but the medium-term factors for our thesis haven’t changed – viz. a strong franchise underscored by heavy retail footprint and incrementally improving unit-economics.</li>
<li>We reiterate "Long-term Buy", with 42% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  management has provided long-term strategic guidance along with its 3Q24 results, which lays down a clear roadmap for the bank's progress.
The latest results are slightly below estimates but the medium-term factors for our thesis haven’t changed – viz. a strong franchise underscored by heavy retail footprint and incrementally improving unit-economics.
We reiterate "Long-term Buy", with 42% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.


IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Long-Term Guidance 2.0; Clarity of Thought Is a Source of Comfort

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Outlook: Deposit growth is expected to remain healthy and continue to outpace advances growth. This will allow the bank to reduce its C/D ratio.</li><li>Margins are expected to remain stable at current levels. The management will increase interest rates on personal loans as COE has gone up.</li><li>Opex is expected to remain at elevated levels in the near term as the bank is currently building the businesses to sustain for the long term. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Outlook: Deposit growth is expected to remain healthy and continue to outpace advances growth. This will allow the bank to reduce its C/D ratio.Margins are expected to remain stable at current levels. The management will increase interest rates on personal loans as COE has gone up.Opex is expected to remain at elevated levels in the near term as the bank is currently building the businesses to sustain for the long term. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Rationally Optimistic Guidance 2.0 with Operating Leverage Play

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a>  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.</li>
<li>A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.</li>
<li>We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.
A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.
We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.


2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

India

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCFB IN)

Inox Wind Merger: Behind the Arbitrage

INOX India Limited and Inox Wind Energy have announced a merger, presenting a clear arbitrage opportunity. The opportunity has grown since the...

Nitin Mangal

IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Long-Term Guidance 2.0; Clarity of Thought Is a Source of Comfort

IDFC First Bank's 5-year guidance, unveiled in the latest results, adds comfort to its potential long-term success story which is already in motion.

Raj S, CA, CFA

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Rationally Optimistic Guidance 2.0 with Operating Leverage Play

Deposit growth is expected to remain healthy and continue to outpace advances growth. This will allow the bank to reduce its C/D ratio.

Axis Direct

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

Outlook on IDFC First Bank's profitability and market valuation is moving towards the top quadrant consisting of the best banking peers in India,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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52-week Range

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Inox Wind Merger: Behind the Arbitrage

​INOX India Limited and Inox Wind Energy have announced a merger, presenting a clear arbitrage opportunity. The opportunity has grown since the...

Nitin Mangal

IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Long-Term Guidance 2.0; Clarity of Thought Is a Source of Comfort

IDFC First Bank's 5-year guidance, unveiled in the latest results, adds comfort to its potential long-term success story which is already in motion.

Raj S, CA, CFA

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Rationally Optimistic Guidance 2.0 with Operating Leverage Play

Deposit growth is expected to remain healthy and continue to outpace advances growth. This will allow the bank to reduce its C/D ratio.

Axis Direct

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

Outlook on IDFC First Bank's profitability and market valuation is moving towards the top quadrant consisting of the best banking peers in India,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

INOX India Limited and Inox Wind Energy have announced a merger, presenting a clear arbitrage opportunity. The opportunity has grown since the...