Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.</li><li>Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34% YoY/ 7% QoQ) and rural finance (up 48% YoY/ 18% QoQ) with significant growth across the segments.Healthy growth in advances and NIM at 6.41% aided NII growth of 35/20% YoY/QoQ.Other income reported strong growth of 68/32% YoY/QoQ, largely led by growth in the fee income from the bank’s retail products.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.</li><li>On a segmental basis at a systemic level, consumer durables/personal loans/credit card outstanding have shown a robust growth of 39/21/30% YoY respectively.</li><li>Banks that have so far reported their provisional numbers for the quarter have witnessed a pick-up deposit growth, led by TD growth outpacing CASA deposit growth. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.On a segmental basis at a systemic level, consumer durables/personal loans/credit card outstanding have shown a robust growth of 39/21/30% YoY respectively.Banks that have so far reported their provisional numbers for the quarter have witnessed a pick-up deposit growth, led by TD growth outpacing CASA deposit growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bfsi Q4fy23 Result Preview – yet Another Strong Quarter!

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.</li>
<li>There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.</li>
<li>The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of Yes Bank (YES IN) expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.
There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.
The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.


YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

<ul><li>Branch Expansion: The management’s focus on adding ~150 branches annually will allow the bank to maintain its credit and deposit growth momentum.</li><li>Cost of funds: Repayment of high-cost legacy borrowing will aid the bank in reducing the cost of funds going forward.</li><li>Improving Asset Quality: With GNPA improving to 2.96% from 3.18% QoQ, NNPA improving to 1.03% from 1.09%, and collection efficiency at 99.6% in the retail portfolio, the bank’s asset quality stress is expected to reduce moving forward.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Branch Expansion: The management’s focus on adding ~150 branches annually will allow the bank to maintain its credit and deposit growth momentum.Cost of funds: Repayment of high-cost legacy borrowing will aid the bank in reducing the cost of funds going forward.Improving Asset Quality: With GNPA improving to 2.96% from 3.18% QoQ, NNPA improving to 1.03% from 1.09%, and collection efficiency at 99.6% in the retail portfolio, the bank’s asset quality stress is expected to reduce moving forward.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Levers Intact

India

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Momentum to Continue

IDFCFB reported robust loan growth momentum (up 22% YoY/ 3% QoQ) in Q4FY23, primarily driven by home loans (up 39% YoY/ 10% QoQ), wheels (up 34%...

Axis Direct

Bfsi Q4fy23 Result Preview – yet Another Strong Quarter!

We expect the banks under our coverage to mirror the strong systemic credit growth, thereby delivering a robust ~17% YoY credit growth in Q4FY23.

Axis Direct

YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

Over 9bn shares of YES Bank unlock next week. There will be forced selling from local passive trackers, overhang from the banks that helped recap...

Brian Freitas

IDFC First Bank Ltd. - Beat Across Parameters; Growth Levers Intact

Branch Expansion: The management’s focus on adding ~150 branches annually will allow the bank to maintain its credit and deposit growth momentum

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)