Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th Jan, small lithium player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with Tianqi Lithium JV, comprising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi (9696 HK)</a> (51%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO (IGO AU)</a> (49%). </li>
<li>The <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02645727-6A1141620?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Booklet is now out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting tabled for the 20 April. The Independent Expert reckons the Scheme Consideration is fair. FIRB is no longer required. </li>
<li>This is done and has traded tight from the onset.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th Jan, small lithium player Essential Metals (ESS AU) entered into a Scheme with Tianqi Lithium JV, comprising Tianqi (9696 HK) (51%) and IGO (IGO AU) (49%). 
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting tabled for the 20 April. The Independent Expert reckons the Scheme Consideration is fair. FIRB is no longer required. 
This is done and has traded tight from the onset.


Essential Metals (ESS AU)'s Scheme: Shareholders To Vote On 20 April. MinRes In The Wings?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> JV’s A$0.50 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. </li>
<li>Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.</li>
<li>Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV’s A$0.50 offer for Essential Metals (ESS AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is higher than its A$0.283-0.468 valuation. 
Odey, the recent substantial shareholder, hoped for a competing proposal which has not materialised. On 10 March, Odey sold down 21% of its holding at A$0.48 per share.
Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1% and 28.4%, respectively.


Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.</li>
<li>One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harvey-norman-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:645:1" rel="noopener">Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/myer-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:577:1" rel="noopener">Myer Holdings (MYR AU)</a> significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.</li>
</ul>



Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. Only Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has more than 1 day of ADV to sell from passive trackers.

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN AU) has underperformed Myer Holdings (MYR AU) significantly over the recent past and the index deletion could provide an entry point into a trade.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended yesterday. Announcement of the changes will be made on 10 March and will be implemented at the close on 17 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> is a potential index inclusion if it is added to the index universe with lithium revenues nearing the 50% threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Ioneer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10264:1" rel="noopener">ioneer Ltd (INR AU)</a> is very close to the 98% deletion threshold and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended yesterday. Announcement of the changes will be made on 10 March and will be implemented at the close on 17 March.

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) is a potential index inclusion if it is added to the index universe with lithium revenues nearing the 50% threshold.

ioneer Ltd (INR AU) is very close to the 98% deletion threshold and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: One Add, One Delete Possible

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Australia

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

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IGO Ltd (IGO AU)

Essential Metals (ESS AU)'s Scheme: Shareholders To Vote On 20 April. MinRes In The Wings?

Trading at a relatively attractive gross/annualised spread of 2.0%/17.8%, however, this is not a super liquid arb situation. Now that FIRB is hands...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: One Add, One Delete Possible

With lithium revenues nearing 50%, MIN AU could be added to the index universe and the index. Near the 98% threshold, INR AU is a potential...

Brian Freitas

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Essential Metals (ESS AU)'s Scheme: Shareholders To Vote On 20 April. MinRes In The Wings?

Trading at a relatively attractive gross/annualised spread of 2.0%/17.8%, however, this is not a super liquid arb situation. Now that FIRB is hands...

David Blennerhassett

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/​IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

Barring an unlikely competing proposal, this is done. At the last close price and for the 5 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.1%...

Arun George

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Deletion & Other Changes

Harvey Norman will be deleted from the MVMVW Index at the close on 17 March. One way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a one-way trade of A$68m. The...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: One Add, One Delete Possible

With lithium revenues nearing 50%, MIN AU could be added to the index universe and the index. Near the 98% threshold, INR AU is a potential...

Brian Freitas

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

Essential Metals (ESS AU): Tianqi/IGO JV Scheme Meeting on 20 April

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: One Add, One Delete Possible