Covering the Companies Most Desks Won't, Thracian Research

Thracian Research

Covering the Companies Most Desks Won't

Thracian Research is an independent equity research firm covering the companies most desks won't: under-followed small- and mid-caps, post-spinoff, and contested, high-leverage situations. We publish full-length, two-sided research notes — typically 8,000–15,000 words with proprietary models, reverse-DCF analysis, scenario tables, and explicit ratings — built bottom-up from primary filings rather than borrowed consensus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>A 559-million-dollar equity claim on a 5.2-billion-dollar enterprise: the largest audio business in America, financed at nine per cent, racing its own broadcast decline against a genuinely good digital franchise.</li><li>The decisive point is arithmetic, not narrative: at $3.59 the equity is 11% of the enterprise, so a modest disagreement with the market about enterprise value produces a violent disagreement about the share price.</li><li>Our base case values the enterprise 3% above where it trades, which is worth $4.60 per share, and a probability-weighted view across the tree is $5.10 against $3.59 spot.</li></ul>

A 559-million-dollar equity claim on a 5.2-billion-dollar enterprise: the largest audio business in America, financed at nine per cent, racing its own broadcast decline against a genuinely good digital franchise.The decisive point is arithmetic, not narrative: at $3.59 the equity is 11% of the enterprise, so a modest disagreement with the market about enterprise value produces a violent disagreement about the share price.Our base case values the enterprise 3% above where it trades, which is worth $4.60 per share, and a probability-weighted view across the tree is $5.10 against $3.59 spot.

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting business</li><li>CEO and CFO have been buying stocks, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects</li><li>Potential debt restructuring and positive growth could lead to a significant increase in IHRT's equity value by the end of 2025.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting businessCEO and CFO have been buying stocks, indicating confidence in the company's future prospectsPotential debt restructuring and positive growth could lead to a significant increase in IHRT's equity value by the end of 2025.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) - Friday, Apr 5, 2024

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

NetEase Cloud Music / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61537" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  </li>
<li>It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3121049/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%B6%B2%E6%98%93%E9%9B%B2%E9%9F%B3%E6%A8%829899%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%94%B6%E8%B7%8C2-%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E7%B4%84%E8%9D%95200%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">-2% lower</a> in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  
It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed -2% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) in China. It has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point.
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass. 


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cloud-village-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33412:1" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (CLV HK)</a> is the second-largest online music platform after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a> as measured by revenue in China. Cloud Village is seeking to raise $500 million. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-initiation-musical-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52266" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-play-list" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55506" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List</a> we stated that it is combining high growth with an improving cost structure. </li>
<li>The 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. The update is unlikely to win over investors wary of Chinese IPOs due to weak debuts.   </li>
</ul>



Cloud Village (CLV HK) is the second-largest online music platform after Tencent Music (TME US) as measured by revenue in China. Cloud Village is seeking to raise $500 million. 
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Initiation: Musical Shares and Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Play List we stated that it is combining high growth with an improving cost structure. 
The 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. The update is unlikely to win over investors wary of Chinese IPOs due to weak debuts.   


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment

United States

iHeartMedia, Inc. provides media entertainment services. The Company offers radio broadcasting, entertainment data distribution, and media advertising services. iHeartMedia serves customers worldwide.

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iHeartMedia (IHRT US)

iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT)

A 559-million-dollar equity claim on a 5.2-billion-dollar enterprise: the largest audio business in America, financed at nine...

Thracian Research

Iheartmedia Inc (IHRT) - Friday, Apr 5, 2024

IHRT is expected to experience positive growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by its podcasting business. CEO and CFO have been buying stocks

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

Cloud Village will commence trading on Thursday, 2 December. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price of...

Arun George

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights

Cloud Village has launched its IPO to raise $400 million at the IPO mid-point. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price is unattractive....

Arun George

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment

The 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. The update is unlikely to win over investors wary of IPOs...

Arun George

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