IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> disclosed that JIP delayed the tender start to “<em>sometime in August 2023</em>” vs the target “<em>in the last ten days of July 2023.</em>”</li>
<li>Toshiba reports 1Q results on 7 August. A solid 1Q will undermine the Board’s recommendation of the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic.</li>
<li>The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip away at the offer’s attractiveness. </li>
</ul>


On 28 July, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) disclosed that JIP delayed the tender start to “sometime in August 2023” vs the target “in the last ten days of July 2023.”
Toshiba reports 1Q results on 7 August. A solid 1Q will undermine the Board’s recommendation of the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic.
The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip away at the offer’s attractiveness. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities - Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook</li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ?  Earnings in Full Swing. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fed Lifts rates +25bps as expected; No longer sees recession emerging; Equities - Mixed as Industrials Rally, Tech Sells off; Meta Beats on Rev/EPS; Boeing Surges on Outloook
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Done, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ? Advantest Miss-back to reality ?  Earnings in Full Swing. 
NUGGET. Japanese Executives Not Properly Incentivized; Shareholders need to take a different tact in addressing corporate performance. 


Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing:  Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses;   Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS</li>
<li>NUGGET. Globally competitive wages - An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing 
JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing:  Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses;   Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS
NUGGET. Globally competitive wages - An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam 


Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue - A Priority

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX eakes out gains despite weak ISM Manufacutring in light trading ahead of July 4th Independence Day Holiday; TESLA +6.9% on big 2Q delivery numbers 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs;  JP land prices continue to rise; Support for JP foundry goals from IBM
NUGGET.  Japan's passing of the GX Promotion Law enables the issuance of ¥20 trillion in bonds and promotes ¥150 trillion of decarbonization investment over the next decade. Investment opportunities abound!


Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach

The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan| Fed Watch: Now for Hawkish Hold; Advantest Miss; NUGGET: JP Executives Not Incentivized

Now for a Hawkish Hold from the Fed; Nikkei Futures -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 140.4; Fed Move Down, but for BOJ - Potential for a Surprise Move ?...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue - A Priority

Strong consumer confidence; Chinese govt resolve to support economy fuels stocks; NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; Earnings: Otsuka HD beats;...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| SPX Gains Despite Weak Factory PMI; NUGGET: Japan's GX Promotion Law - Opportunity !

SPX gains ahead of 4th July holidays; NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JPYUSD 144.7; Strong BOJ Tankan print drives NKY to new highs; JP land prices...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

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