Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> cash flow remains highly constrained, failing to comfortably cover the group's legacy debt obligations. </li>
<li>The stock price dropped down to JPY 2,690 (July 14) and it is currently consolidating around JPY 2,725 as of mid-July 2026, breaking below its 200-day moving average.</li>
<li>The stock's sell-off appears tactically exhausted according to our model, a rebound rally from here could reach the 3000 price zone in 2-3 weeks.
</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) cash flow remains highly constrained, failing to comfortably cover the group's legacy debt obligations. 
The stock price dropped down to JPY 2,690 (July 14) and it is currently consolidating around JPY 2,725 as of mid-July 2026, breaking below its 200-day moving average.
The stock's sell-off appears tactically exhausted according to our model, a rebound rally from here could reach the 3000 price zone in 2-3 weeks.



Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> is down about 9% outright since a Reuters article mid-day 1 July suggested they'd be raising equity.  TOPIX is up tiny in the same period. </li>
<li>An equal-weighted basket of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> is up 2.25%. The KHI/Peers ratio had already come off recent highs too.</li>
<li>At a discount today's close, this looks like a good deal relative to peers, but it isn't a total no-brainer.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) is down about 9% outright since a Reuters article mid-day 1 July suggested they'd be raising equity.  TOPIX is up tiny in the same period. 
An equal-weighted basket of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) is up 2.25%. The KHI/Peers ratio had already come off recent highs too.
At a discount today's close, this looks like a good deal relative to peers, but it isn't a total no-brainer.


[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> has just announced their capital raising intentions. ¥93.7bn (estimated) of shares (37.35mm shares), and ¥100bn of 2031/2033 convertible bonds.</li>
<li>The Reuters article presaging this seemed to say this would be aimed at International Investors (i.e. an ABO). The extraordinary filing to EDINET suggests an Open Offering to the same.</li>
<li>A bookbuilding between 14-16 July, but only for international investors. No greenshoe. Weird. 2.8x ADV, 4.5% of shares out, 10% of Max Real World Float. Should be easy. But weird.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has just announced their capital raising intentions. ¥93.7bn (estimated) of shares (37.35mm shares), and ¥100bn of 2031/2033 convertible bonds.
The Reuters article presaging this seemed to say this would be aimed at International Investors (i.e. an ABO). The extraordinary filing to EDINET suggests an Open Offering to the same.
A bookbuilding between 14-16 July, but only for international investors. No greenshoe. Weird. 2.8x ADV, 4.5% of shares out, 10% of Max Real World Float. Should be easy. But weird.


[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy Offering Details Out

<ul>
<li>Today Reuters carried an article suggesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> would soon announce a ¥200bn capital raise - combo equity and convertible bond offering - in an ABO. </li>
<li>¥200bn would be a 23% increase in equity but about 6-7% dilution in realtime (equity+CB delta). ¥100bn of each would be 3x ADV, 4.8% of Shs Out, 10.7% of MRWF.</li>
<li>The shares fell 8% today, putting them 13% off the recent high as a ratio against MitHeavy+IHI. The shares aren't cheap, but this looks to be "easy."</li>
</ul>


Today Reuters carried an article suggesting Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) would soon announce a ¥200bn capital raise - combo equity and convertible bond offering - in an ABO. 
¥200bn would be a 23% increase in equity but about 6-7% dilution in realtime (equity+CB delta). ¥100bn of each would be 3x ADV, 4.8% of Shs Out, 10.7% of MRWF.
The shares fell 8% today, putting them 13% off the recent high as a ratio against MitHeavy+IHI. The shares aren't cheap, but this looks to be "easy."


[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) Looking at an Offering

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...

Nico Rosti

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Kawasaki Heavy's ¥100bn offering should price today. It has fallen more than the dilution would suggest both outright and against peers and TOPIX....

Travis Lundy

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy Offering Details Out

The Kawasaki Heavy offering details come out as expected. The shares may benefit from anti-momentum bias as momentum is getting shellacked, but...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) Looking at an Offering

Kawasaki Heavy may raise ¥200bn to invest in capex towards gas turbines and aircraft engines. Those are hot spaces with strong margins in the few...

Travis Lundy

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Kawasaki Heavy Ind (7012)Tactical Outlook: Exhausted Sell-Off, Possible Rally to 3K

​Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...

Nico Rosti

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012) Deal Probably Prices Today

Kawasaki Heavy's ¥100bn offering should price today. It has fallen more than the dilution would suggest both outright and against peers and TOPIX....

Travis Lundy

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy Offering Details Out

The Kawasaki Heavy offering details come out as expected. The shares may benefit from anti-momentum bias as momentum is getting shellacked, but...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Offering] Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP) Looking at an Offering

Kawasaki Heavy may raise ¥200bn to invest in capex towards gas turbines and aircraft engines. Those are hot spaces with strong margins in the few...

Travis Lundy

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has been in a downtrend for months. The recent sell-off seems nearly exhausted. The rebound rally may reach...