Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2b-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16558:1" rel="noopener">A2B Australia (A2B AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-rakutenchi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2078:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Adbri (ABC AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU). 
Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jan) - Weiqiao Textile, IRC, IJTT, JSR, Shinko Electric, Hollysys, OreCorp

<ul>
<li>The BIG Risk is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> sells its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-general-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2025:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu General (6755 JP)</a> to someone in a below-market tender offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. </li>
</ul>


The BIG Risk is that Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) sells its stake in Fujitsu General (6755 JP) to someone in a below-market tender offer.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) may still see more outperformance from its  latest buyback. But it's up ~29% since the company announced it was buying both the As and Bs. 

Li Ning (2331 HK)'s shares continue to edge up after its founder recently increased its stake. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seedheiwa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5246:1" rel="noopener">Seedheiwa (1739 JP)</a>'s (now Meldia DC) Tender Offer; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boart-longyear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4075:1" rel="noopener">Boart Longyear (BLY AU)</a>'s ignominious exit. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT (7315 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shidax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7754:1" rel="noopener">Shidax Corp (4837 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ohizumi-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3391:1" rel="noopener">Ohizumi Mfg (6618 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed this week: Seedheiwa (1739 JP)'s (now Meldia DC) Tender Offer; and Boart Longyear (BLY AU)'s ignominious exit. 
Key updates took place on: Orecorp (ORR AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), IJTT (7315 JP), Shidax Corp (4837 JP), Ohizumi Mfg (6618 JP), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sparx-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13158:1" rel="noopener">Sparx Group (8739 JP)</a>’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)</a> share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.</li>
<li>The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a 21% downside on a deal break. </li>
</ul>



IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.
The Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a 21% downside on a deal break. 


IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

Japan

IJTT Co., Ltd. is a holding company established by the merger between I Metal Technology, TDF and Jidosha Buhin Kogyo. Its subsidiaries engage in production, processing and sales of truck parts and construction machine parts.

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IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

For the month of December, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Jan) - Weiqiao Textile, IRC, IJTT, JSR, Shinko Electric, Hollysys, OreCorp

This week, the highest gross spreads are IRC (10.3%), Hollysys (9.4%), JSR (8.2%), Shinko Electric (8.0%), Adbri (6.7%), Probiotec (6.0%), Weiqiao...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fujitsu General, Swire Pacific, Li Ning, IJJT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Meldia DC, Boart Longyear, Orecorp, Symbio, Shidax, Hollysys

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no signs of a competing bidder point to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a...

Arun George

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