New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Warehouse Group Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group’s 1Q26 update continued the challenging trading conditions NZ retailers have faced over the past 12–24 months.</li><li>WHS has sharply refocused on its cost base, targeting a more sustainable 31% of sales for its cost of doing business (CODB) through both: (1) head office cost reduction; and (2) top-line growth.</li><li>Meanwhile, near-term earnings risk remains negatively skewed: (1) promotional intensity is rising for Black Friday and Christmas; (2) IKEA opens in December; and (3) competitors continue to gain share.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group’s 1Q26 update continued the challenging trading conditions NZ retailers have faced over the past 12–24 months.WHS has sharply refocused on its cost base, targeting a more sustainable 31% of sales for its cost of doing business (CODB) through both: (1) head office cost reduction; and (2) top-line growth.Meanwhile, near-term earnings risk remains negatively skewed: (1) promotional intensity is rising for Black Friday and Christmas; (2) IKEA opens in December; and (3) competitors continue to gain share.

The Warehouse Group 1Q26 Trading Update—No New Stock

<ul><li>Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.</li><li>BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.</li><li>Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.BGP reiterated its guidance of NPAT of NZ$60m for FY26; albeit we think performance needs to improve in 4Q26 to achieve this target, and there may be some downside risk to earnings with the arrival of IKEA in December and continued promotional pricing pressure.Trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~19x on our revised estimates, we continue to view the risk-reward as skewed to the downside.

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

<ul><li>The Warehouse Group (WHS)'s broadly breakeven FY25 result was largely as expected but is still disappointing in light of its NZ$3.1bn of sales and almost NZ$1bn of gross profit.</li><li>In the meantime, we think FY26 will be another challenging year: while domestic consumer spending is showing signs of stabilisation, gross margins remain under pressure, and competitive tensions will rise with the arrival of IKEA in December 2025.</li><li>We recognise that the leverage in this business is significant, but continue to view the near-term risk-reward as skewed to the downside.</li></ul>

The Warehouse Group (WHS)'s broadly breakeven FY25 result was largely as expected but is still disappointing in light of its NZ$3.1bn of sales and almost NZ$1bn of gross profit.In the meantime, we think FY26 will be another challenging year: while domestic consumer spending is showing signs of stabilisation, gross margins remain under pressure, and competitive tensions will rise with the arrival of IKEA in December 2025.We recognise that the leverage in this business is significant, but continue to view the near-term risk-reward as skewed to the downside.

The Warehouse Group FY25 Result—Big Box, Small Profit

<ul><li>Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.</li><li>Management commentary suggested that margin pressure continues to be a key challenge.</li><li>We view the earnings risk from here as skewed to the downside, and with BGP trading on a 20x 12-month forward PE multiple — more than three standard deviations above its long-run average — the risk of a material de-rating remains elevated.</li></ul>

Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.Management commentary suggested that margin pressure continues to be a key challenge.We view the earnings risk from here as skewed to the downside, and with BGP trading on a 20x 12-month forward PE multiple — more than three standard deviations above its long-run average — the risk of a material de-rating remains elevated.

Briscoe Group 2Q26 Trading Update — The Gross Profit Game

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepperfry-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36119:1" rel="noopener">Pepperfry (0096696D IN)</a> is one of the largest furniture and home decor marketplaces in India. Recently also started offering appliances to serve as a one-stop home shop. </li>
<li>Our channels indicate higher AOVs and different customers compared to Swedish giant IKEA. Marketplaces like Pepperfry solve the problem of discovery for customers looking for furniture in a new location. </li>
<li>The WFH tailwind is fading away. With revenues declining, profitability is distant, and with the financial position that is yet to improve caution is warranted.  </li>
</ul>



Pepperfry (0096696D IN) is one of the largest furniture and home decor marketplaces in India. Recently also started offering appliances to serve as a one-stop home shop. 
Our channels indicate higher AOVs and different customers compared to Swedish giant IKEA. Marketplaces like Pepperfry solve the problem of discovery for customers looking for furniture in a new location. 
The WFH tailwind is fading away. With revenues declining, profitability is distant, and with the financial position that is yet to improve caution is warranted.  


Pepperfry Tearsheet - Banking on Discovery

Netherlands

IKEA of Sweden AB retails home and office furnishing products. The Company offers furniture, home and kitchen appliances, lighting, textile, carpets, decoration, and other products. IKEA of Sweden serves customers worldwide.

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IKEA of Sweden AB (4168877Z SS)

The Warehouse Group 1Q26 Trading Update—No New Stock

The Warehouse Group’s 1Q26 update continued the challenging trading conditions NZ retailers have faced over the past 12–24 months. WHS has sharply...

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 3Q26 Trading Update—Balancing Act

Briscoes Group (BGP) reported 3Q26 sales down -2% year on year as the company pulled back on promotional activity to protect gross margins.

Forsyth Barr

The Warehouse Group FY25 Result—Big Box, Small Profit

The Warehouse Group (WHS)'s broadly breakeven FY25 result was largely as expected but is still disappointing in light of its NZ$3.1bn of sales and...

Forsyth Barr

Briscoe Group 2Q26 Trading Update — The Gross Profit Game

Briscoe Group's (BGP) 2Q26 sales update was solid from a sales perspective, but gross margins remained under significant pressure.

Forsyth Barr

Pepperfry Tearsheet - Banking on Discovery

India Unicorn Series: We profile Pepperfry, the furniture and home decor marketplace. While organised retailers have a discovery tailwind,...

Pranav Bhavsar

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