Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Apollo Global Management  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Illumina experienced a mixed third-quarter performance for 2024, illustrating both advancements and challenges in its operational landscape.</li><li>The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, matching its expectations but reflecting a 2% decrease year-over-year.</li><li>This decline was linked to reduced instrument sales due to the launch-year comparisons of the NovaSeq X series and effects of capital constraints globally.</li></ul>

Illumina experienced a mixed third-quarter performance for 2024, illustrating both advancements and challenges in its operational landscape.The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.1 billion, matching its expectations but reflecting a 2% decrease year-over-year.This decline was linked to reduced instrument sales due to the launch-year comparisons of the NovaSeq X series and effects of capital constraints globally.

Illumina Inc.: These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path!  - Major Drivers

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> is a direct addition followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a> are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. </li>
</ul>



Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) is a direct addition followed by AppLovin (APP US) which is a conditional addition but close to be direct. Demand is ~$1.8bn and ~3.5 ADV.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is a direct deletion with the highest exclusion probability as it is  ranked above the exit rank of 125. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) , ARM Holdings (ARM US) and Moderna (MRNA US) are amongst the prioritized constituents preventing eligible candidates from entering the index. 


Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

Erie Indemnity Company Cl A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main addition by transition candidate with a <em>reduced</em> probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erie-indemnity-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4804:1" rel="noopener">Erie Indemnity (ERIE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the main addition by migration candidates with an <em>increased</em> probability due to weak transition candidates.</li>
<li>Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlisle-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7929:1" rel="noopener">Carlisle Cos (CSL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dick-s-sporting-goods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1675:1" rel="noopener">Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.
Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include Texas Pacific Land (TPL US), Carlisle Cos (CSL US) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US) .


S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

<ul><li>In the second quarter of 2024, Illumina posted revenue results that exceeded expectations.</li><li>While the revenue from core Illumina stood at $1.1 billion, demonstrating solid execution against strategic priorities, the company admits facing challenges due to extended sales cycles and concerns over global economic pressures which affected equipment orders.</li><li>Despite these hurdles, consumption of sequencing activity consumables saw a significant rise primarily driven by the NovaSeq X Plus, emphasizing an ongoing transition that spells potential future growth.</li></ul>

In the second quarter of 2024, Illumina posted revenue results that exceeded expectations.While the revenue from core Illumina stood at $1.1 billion, demonstrating solid execution against strategic priorities, the company admits facing challenges due to extended sales cycles and concerns over global economic pressures which affected equipment orders.Despite these hurdles, consumption of sequencing activity consumables saw a significant rise primarily driven by the NovaSeq X Plus, emphasizing an ongoing transition that spells potential future growth.

Illumina Inc.: The Tale Of Global Market Penetration and Expansion! - Major Drivers

United States

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

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Illumina Inc (ILMN US)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

The S&P500/400/600 Dec24 review will be announced in just over 10 days. There is an intra-review change in SP600 first, and perhaps a few more in...

Travis Lundy

Illumina Inc.: These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! - Major Drivers

Illumina experienced a mixed third-quarter performance for 2024, illustrating both advancements and challenges in its operational landscape. The...

Baptista Research

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Illumina Inc.: The Tale Of Global Market Penetration and Expansion! - Major Drivers

In the second quarter of 2024, Illumina posted revenue results that exceeded expectations. While the revenue from core Illumina stood at $1.1...

Baptista Research

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Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: APP, APO, and TPL May Be ADDs, Watch SP600 DELs

The S&P500/400/600 Dec24 review will be announced in just over 10 days. There is an intra-review change in SP600 first, and perhaps a few more in...

Travis Lundy

Illumina Inc.: These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! - Major Drivers

Illumina experienced a mixed third-quarter performance for 2024, illustrating both advancements and challenges in its operational landscape. The...

Baptista Research

Nasdaq-100 December 2024 Forecasts: Monolithic Power & AppLovin It; Dollar Tree Needs Watering

​MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Illumina Inc.: The Tale Of Global Market Penetration and Expansion! - Major Drivers

In the second quarter of 2024, Illumina posted revenue results that exceeded expectations. While the revenue from core Illumina stood at $1.1...

Baptista Research

MPWR and APP are the top candidates for inclusion with an average forecasted demand at nearly $2bn and 3.5 ADV, while DLTR and ILMN face a high...