Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Haitong International Securities / Event-Driven

Haitong International Securities (TFZ GR)

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

<ul>
<li>Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s shareholders at the November EGM, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> executives, then game on.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.</li>
</ul>


Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by EOFlow (294090 KS)'s shareholders at the November EGM, include Medtronic Plc (MDT US) executives, then game on.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).

JMDC (4483 JP) has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.


Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS (659 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)'s Offer for Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), NWS (659 HK),IMAX China (1970 HK), and Eoflow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5321:1" rel="noopener">IMAX Corp (IMAX US)</a>'s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)'s scheme document is out, with the court meeting scheduled for 10 October. The IFA considers IMAX Corp (IMAX US)'s HK$10.00 offer fair and reasonable.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
A recovering box office, early indications of an effort to rally retail NO votes and a high minority participation rate in AGMs pose a risk. The risk/reward profile is unfavourable. 


IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, BPLANT. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-pmc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13752:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK), 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), BPLANT. 

Lowest spreads - Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Healius (HLS AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP).


Merger Arb Mondays (09 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, NWS, Boustead, Newcrest, Liontown, Hollysys

China

IMAX China Holding is an investment holding company focused on digital and film-based motion picture technologies. It designs, sells, leases, and maintains IMAX theater systems, including digital remastering and distribution of films in the IMAX format, along with aftermarket sales of parts and 3D glasses. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

IMAX China (1970 HK): Risk as Scheme Vote on 10 October

The IMAX China scheme has failed. The minority participation rate was 60.93%. 70.0% of disinterested shareholders voted YES, and 18.28% of all...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (09 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, NWS, Boustead, Newcrest, Liontown, Hollysys

This week, the highest gross spreads are Haitong Intl (114.1%), 111 (45.2%), Eoflow (40.5%), Hollysys (20.4%), IMAX China (15.9%), BPLANT (11.5%),...

Arun George

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