Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. </li>
<li>The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.</li>
<li>Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. </li>
</ul>


Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr'25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY. 
The additional 50bp cut in Jun'25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.
Over the Oct'25-Sep'26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth. 


India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

<ul>
<li>India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. </li>
<li>Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. </li>
<li>FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. </li>
</ul>


India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. 
Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. 
FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. </li>
<li>Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.</li>
<li>With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.


India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

<ul>
<li>India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. </li>
<li>CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. </li>
<li>Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  </li>
</ul>


India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. 
CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. 
Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. </li>
<li>With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. </li>
<li>Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. 
With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. 
Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. 


India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

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India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth

​100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

​RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

​India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

​RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

100bp rate and CRR cuts and 2ppYoY GST reduction expected to drive strong economic growth in India, with RGDP accelerating from 7.8% YoY in Q1FY26...

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...