Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week, the CERC issued the order on market coupling for DAM across all the Indian Power Exchanges. Now, a single uniform market clearing price will be determined centrally.</li>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-energy-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25946:1" rel="noopener">Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN)</a> have reacted negatively to this development. Management's stance on market share remains positive even though there is uncertainty involved.</li>
<li>Investors should also consider structural drivers like rising electricity demand, low exchange penetration, strong user loyalty, and positive performance of IGX platform while evaluating IEX’s long-term prospects.</li>
</ul>


This week, the CERC issued the order on market coupling for DAM across all the Indian Power Exchanges. Now, a single uniform market clearing price will be determined centrally.
Shares of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN) have reacted negatively to this development. Management's stance on market share remains positive even though there is uncertainty involved.
Investors should also consider structural drivers like rising electricity demand, low exchange penetration, strong user loyalty, and positive performance of IGX platform while evaluating IEX’s long-term prospects.


IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Equity Derivatives

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>India’s CERC has approved the implementation of Market Coupling in the DAM(Day Ahead Market)  by Jan-26, with Real Time Market (RTM) coupling to follow after operational experience is gained.</li>
<li>IEX currently commands 99.8% market share in both DAM and RTM. With MC, price discovery will be centralized, eroding IEX’s platform advantage and likely resulting in loss of market share.</li>
<li>If MC had been implemented in FY25, IEX’s earnings would have been 20% lower. This regulatory shift poses a clear structural risk to IEX’s volume dominance and earnings growth.</li>
</ul>


India’s CERC has approved the implementation of Market Coupling in the DAM(Day Ahead Market)  by Jan-26, with Real Time Market (RTM) coupling to follow after operational experience is gained.
IEX currently commands 99.8% market share in both DAM and RTM. With MC, price discovery will be centralized, eroding IEX’s platform advantage and likely resulting in loss of market share.
If MC had been implemented in FY25, IEX’s earnings would have been 20% lower. This regulatory shift poses a clear structural risk to IEX’s volume dominance and earnings growth.


India's Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.</li>
<li>This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.</li>
<li>Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.</li>
</ul>


CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.
This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.
Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.


Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

<ul>
<li>Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.</li>
<li>Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.</li>
<li>Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.</li>
</ul>


Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.


IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

<ul>
<li>IEX reported 18.7% volume growth to 121 BU in FY25, with revenue up 19.3% and PAT up 22.3%, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes.</li>
<li>Strong growth in Green Market and REC trading; new initiatives like Green RTM, Carbon Credit Trading, and Coal Exchange are progressing toward regulatory approvals.</li>
<li>Management expects volume growth from rising demand and policy support, but regulatory changes and market coupling remain key execution and competitive risks.</li>
</ul>


IEX reported 18.7% volume growth to 121 BU in FY25, with revenue up 19.3% and PAT up 22.3%, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes.
Strong growth in Green Market and REC trading; new initiatives like Green RTM, Carbon Credit Trading, and Coal Exchange are progressing toward regulatory approvals.
Management expects volume growth from rising demand and policy support, but regulatory changes and market coupling remain key execution and competitive risks.


IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

India

Indian Energy Exchange Limited operates a power trading platform for the physical delivery of electricity. The Company enables price discovery and risk management for participants of the electricity market. Indian Energy Exchange serves metal, food processing, textile, cement, ceramic, chemicals, automobiles, and information technology industries in India.

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Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN)

IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

Nitin Mangal

India's Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption

India's CERC approves Market Coupling in Day Ahead Market, posing a threat to IEX's market share and earnings growth going forward.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

Rahul Jain

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

Rahul Jain

IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

​CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

Nitin Mangal

India's Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption

​India's CERC approves Market Coupling in Day Ahead Market, posing a threat to IEX's market share and earnings growth going forward.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

​CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

Rahul Jain

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

​IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

Rahul Jain

IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

​IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...

Rahul Jain

CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

India's CERC approves Market Coupling in Day Ahead Market, posing a threat to IEX's market share and earnings growth going forward.

CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...