Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Energy Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week, the CERC issued the order on market coupling for DAM across all the Indian Power Exchanges. Now, a single uniform market clearing price will be determined centrally.</li>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-energy-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25946:1" rel="noopener">Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN)</a> have reacted negatively to this development. Management's stance on market share remains positive even though there is uncertainty involved.</li>
<li>Investors should also consider structural drivers like rising electricity demand, low exchange penetration, strong user loyalty, and positive performance of IGX platform while evaluating IEX’s long-term prospects.</li>
</ul>


This week, the CERC issued the order on market coupling for DAM across all the Indian Power Exchanges. Now, a single uniform market clearing price will be determined centrally.
Shares of Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (IEX IN) have reacted negatively to this development. Management's stance on market share remains positive even though there is uncertainty involved.
Investors should also consider structural drivers like rising electricity demand, low exchange penetration, strong user loyalty, and positive performance of IGX platform while evaluating IEX’s long-term prospects.


IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The introduction of "Market Coupling" creates a central authority for price discovery, effectively stripping IEX of its monopoly power and neutralizing its liquidity-driven network effects.</li>
<li>IEX stock crashed nearly 30%following the CERC's mandatory directive to implement Market Coupling for the Day-Ahead Market by January 2026, causing significant investor panic.</li>
<li>Hopes for a quick legal resolution faded as APTEL deferred the vital hearing to January 19th without staying the CERC order, causing the stock to slide again.</li>
</ul>


The introduction of "Market Coupling" creates a central authority for price discovery, effectively stripping IEX of its monopoly power and neutralizing its liquidity-driven network effects.
IEX stock crashed nearly 30%following the CERC's mandatory directive to implement Market Coupling for the Day-Ahead Market by January 2026, causing significant investor panic.
Hopes for a quick legal resolution faded as APTEL deferred the vital hearing to January 19th without staying the CERC order, causing the stock to slide again.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEBI issued an interim order barring eight individuals and impounding INR173.14 crore in alleged illegal gains from insider trading in IEX shares, involving a high-ranking CERC official leaking confidential information.</li>
<li>This unprecedented case highlights a critical vulnerability: the leakage of UPSI from a regulatory body, undermining market integrity and posing a new, significant risk for companies dependent on government policy.</li>
<li>The decisive action by SEBI sends a powerful deterrence signal, but investors must now factor in regulatory governance risk as a core valuation parameter, especially for monopolistic or policy-sensitive entities.</li>
</ul>


SEBI issued an interim order barring eight individuals and impounding INR173.14 crore in alleged illegal gains from insider trading in IEX shares, involving a high-ranking CERC official leaking confidential information.
This unprecedented case highlights a critical vulnerability: the leakage of UPSI from a regulatory body, undermining market integrity and posing a new, significant risk for companies dependent on government policy.
The decisive action by SEBI sends a powerful deterrence signal, but investors must now factor in regulatory governance risk as a core valuation parameter, especially for monopolistic or policy-sensitive entities.


₹173 Crore Insider Windfall: SEBI Cracks Down on Nexus Between CERC and IEX Traders.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>India’s electricity demand is witnessing a structural boom driven by rising temperatures, AC sales, urbanization, and smart tariff reforms, not just seasonal summer spikes.</li>
<li>Cooling demand alone could drive one-third of peak load by 2030, stressing grids, accelerating coal use, and challenging India’s clean energy transition.</li>
<li>The power story is no longer about generation alone, transmission, storage, smart meters, and efficient cooling are the real investment and policy frontiers to watch.</li>
</ul>


India’s electricity demand is witnessing a structural boom driven by rising temperatures, AC sales, urbanization, and smart tariff reforms, not just seasonal summer spikes.
Cooling demand alone could drive one-third of peak load by 2030, stressing grids, accelerating coal use, and challenging India’s clean energy transition.
The power story is no longer about generation alone, transmission, storage, smart meters, and efficient cooling are the real investment and policy frontiers to watch.


India’s Power Surge: What Is Fueling the Demand Boom in 2025?

<ul>
<li>Indian Gas Exchange, India’s only authorised national physical-delivery gas exchange, filed a 100% OFS for 1.671 crore shares, reducing IEX’s holding from 47.28% to 25%.</li>
<li>IGX combines monopoly status, asset-light debt-free economics, 35% PAT CAGR and 69.1% FY26 EBITDA margin, with CRISIL projecting 37% volume CAGR through FY30.</li>
<li>The IPO is price-sensitive: no growth capital enters IGX, while INR 340 implies nearly 60x FY26 earnings, liquidity, approvals and transaction-led growth must justify the premium.</li>
</ul>


Indian Gas Exchange, India’s only authorised national physical-delivery gas exchange, filed a 100% OFS for 1.671 crore shares, reducing IEX’s holding from 47.28% to 25%.
IGX combines monopoly status, asset-light debt-free economics, 35% PAT CAGR and 69.1% FY26 EBITDA margin, with CRISIL projecting 37% volume CAGR through FY30.
The IPO is price-sensitive: no growth capital enters IGX, while INR 340 implies nearly 60x FY26 earnings, liquidity, approvals and transaction-led growth must justify the premium.


IGX IPO: Can India’s Gas Market Shift from Bilateral Deals to Exchange Trading?

India

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is India's premier electronic trading platform for the physical delivery of electricity, renewable energy, and certificates. It facilitates efficient price discovery and provides a marketplace for various participants in the power market. IEX's products include Day-Ahead Market (DAM), Real-Time Market (RTM), Term-Ahead Market (TAM), Green Day-Ahead Market (G-DAM), Green Term-Ahead Market (G-TAM), Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), and Energy Saving Certificates (ESCerts). The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX IN)

IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

Nitin Mangal

The IEX: Why Monopoly Is Shaking?

Introduction of Market Coupling strips IEX of monopoly power, stock crashes 30% following directive, legal resolution deferred causing investor...

Sudarshan Bhandari

₹173 Crore Insider Windfall: SEBI Cracks Down on Nexus Between CERC and IEX Traders.

SEBI bars individuals, impounds funds in insider trading case involving leaked information from regulatory body, highlighting new risk for companies.

Sudarshan Bhandari

India’s Power Surge: What Is Fueling the Demand Boom in 2025?

India's electricity demand is rising due to various factors, including cooling needs, urbanization, and smart tariff reforms, posing challenges...

Nimish Maheshwari

IGX IPO: Can India’s Gas Market Shift from Bilateral Deals to Exchange Trading?

Indian Gas Exchange filed a 100% OFS reducing IEX's holding, with strong financials but a price-sensitive IPO at nearly 60x FY26 earnings.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IEX Ltd: Over-Reaction on Market Coupling?

​CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

Nitin Mangal

The IEX: Why Monopoly Is Shaking?

​Introduction of Market Coupling strips IEX of monopoly power, stock crashes 30% following directive, legal resolution deferred causing investor...

Sudarshan Bhandari

₹173 Crore Insider Windfall: SEBI Cracks Down on Nexus Between CERC and IEX Traders.

​SEBI bars individuals, impounds funds in insider trading case involving leaked information from regulatory body, highlighting new risk for companies.

Sudarshan Bhandari

India’s Power Surge: What Is Fueling the Demand Boom in 2025?

​India's electricity demand is rising due to various factors, including cooling needs, urbanization, and smart tariff reforms, posing challenges...

Nimish Maheshwari

IGX IPO: Can India’s Gas Market Shift from Bilateral Deals to Exchange Trading?

​Indian Gas Exchange filed a 100% OFS reducing IEX's holding, with strong financials but a price-sensitive IPO at nearly 60x FY26 earnings.

Sudarshan Bhandari

CERC's market coupling order impacts Indian Power Exchanges, with IEX shares reacting negatively. Investors urged to consider long-term prospects...

Introduction of Market Coupling strips IEX of monopoly power, stock crashes 30% following directive, legal resolution deferred causing investor...

SEBI bars individuals, impounds funds in insider trading case involving leaked information from regulatory body, highlighting new risk for companies.

India's electricity demand is rising due to various factors, including cooling needs, urbanization, and smart tariff reforms, posing challenges...

Indian Gas Exchange filed a 100% OFS reducing IEX's holding, with strong financials but a price-sensitive IPO at nearly 60x FY26 earnings.