Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.</li><li>Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.</li><li>Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024.Ongoing squeeze on base oils margins increases importance for refiners to maintain balanced-to-tight supplies to boost their leverage to adjust prices accordingly.Weaker margins and importance of balanced supplies boost incentive for refiners to adjust output accordingly.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.</li><li>Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.</li><li>Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing margins</li><li>IOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumes</li><li>Reported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing marginsIOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumesReported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025.</li><li>Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus supplies to markets like Latin America, suggesting Asia’s supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.</li><li>Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at similar levels so far in Q4 2025 to end-Q3, even after recent rebound in crude/gasoil prices.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025.Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus supplies to markets like Latin America, suggesting Asia’s supply-demand fundamentals remain balanced to tight.Asia’s Group II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at similar levels so far in Q4 2025 to end-Q3, even after recent rebound in crude/gasoil prices.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 27 October

India

Indian Oil Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil, in addition to manufacturing petroleum & petroleum products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuels, greases, wax, bitumen and asphalt. Indian Oil Corporation has retail outlets throughout India. The greatest majority shareholding in the Company is held by Indian Government.

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Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils prices extend fall vs gasoil prices, with Group II heavy-grade differentials slipping to lowest since start of Q3 2024. Ongoing...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 November

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of...

Base Oil News

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies...

HDFC Securities

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 27 October

Asia’s Group II base oils cargo prices hold firm versus US export prices so far in Q4 2025. Firm prices complicate arbitrage to move surplus...

Base Oil News

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