ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate 3Q25/ 9M25 sector rev. growth of +2.8/+2.9% yoy, in line with ours’ and consensus’ est.</li><li>Opex savings esp. on A&amp;P exp. may help to partially cushion op. profit decline (9M25E: -1.3% yoy) and core profit growth of +3.7% yoy in 9M25E.</li><li>Reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector; ICBP (Buy, TP Rp12,000) remains the top pick in the space.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate 3Q25/ 9M25 sector rev. growth of +2.8/+2.9% yoy, in line with ours’ and consensus’ est.Opex savings esp. on A&amp;P exp. may help to partially cushion op. profit decline (9M25E: -1.3% yoy) and core profit growth of +3.7% yoy in 9M25E.Reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector; ICBP (Buy, TP Rp12,000) remains the top pick in the space.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: 3Q25 Preview: Navigating Modest Revenue Growth Through Cost Discipline (OVERWEIGHT)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We maintain our positive stance on Banks as we expect better liquidity condition to be reflected in Sep25 CoF, combined with attractive yield.</li><li>We continue to favor exposure in Commodities through Metals (INCO) and Coal (AADI). </li><li>While Consumers sector trade at deep discount, we remain ST cautious amid lingering raw materials pressure and weaker IDR risk.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain our positive stance on Banks as we expect better liquidity condition to be reflected in Sep25 CoF, combined with attractive yield.We continue to favor exposure in Commodities through Metals (INCO) and Coal (AADI). While Consumers sector trade at deep discount, we remain ST cautious amid lingering raw materials pressure and weaker IDR risk.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Oct25 Picks: Sticking with Banks, Commodities, Telco

<ul><li>The newly launched “8+4” program stimulus should serve as a catalyst for consumer spending recovery and support Consumer sector’s growth. </li><li>While we expect the stimulus impact may take place in 4Q25 onwards, we maintain our rev/core earnings growth of +4.8/+0.4% yoy in FY25F.</li><li>Reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector. Our top pick is ICBP (Buy, TP Rp12,000), followed by MYOR (Buy, TP Rp2,500).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The newly launched “8+4” program stimulus should serve as a catalyst for consumer spending recovery and support Consumer sector’s growth. While we expect the stimulus impact may take place in 4Q25 onwards, we maintain our rev/core earnings growth of +4.8/+0.4% yoy in FY25F.Reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector. Our top pick is ICBP (Buy, TP Rp12,000), followed by MYOR (Buy, TP Rp2,500).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Stimulus on the Horizon (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.</li><li>Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).</li><li>Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Indonesia

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk provides a wide range of food products. The Company is a total food solutions company with operations in all stages of food manufacturing from the production of raw materials and their processing through to consumer products on the retailer's shelf.

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Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

Consumer: 3Q25 Preview: Navigating Modest Revenue Growth Through Cost Discipline (OVERWEIGHT)

Opex savings esp. on A&P exp. may help to partially cushion op. profit decline (9M25E: -1.3% yoy) and core profit growth of +3.7% yoy in 9M25E.

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: Oct25 Picks: Sticking with Banks, Commodities, Telco

We maintain our positive stance on Banks as we expect better liquidity condition to be reflected in Sep25 CoF, combined with attractive yield.

BRI Danareksa Research

Consumer: Stimulus on the Horizon (OVERWEIGHT)

The newly launched “8+4” program stimulus should serve as a catalyst for consumer spending recovery and support Consumer sector’s growth.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

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