HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a> has an ambitious IPO plan to raise HK$13.1bn. However, the volatile earnings record and challenging environment require a sizeable safety margin.</li>
<li>We project a 3-year EPS CAGR of -5.3% as profitability will only slightly recover next year. Yet, our forecasts may still be optimistic.</li>
<li>The maximum IPO price (HK$49.50) implies a FY16 PER of 18.5x, but its small size and volatile growth are negatives. We will only be involved at the low end.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK) has an ambitious IPO plan to raise HK$13.1bn. However, the volatile earnings record and challenging environment require a sizeable safety margin.
We project a 3-year EPS CAGR of -5.3% as profitability will only slightly recover next year. Yet, our forecasts may still be optimistic.
The maximum IPO price (HK$49.50) implies a FY16 PER of 18.5x, but its small size and volatile growth are negatives. We will only be involved at the low end.


SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Cheap for Some Reason

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations edge higher, complicating WSP approach • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein Hong Kong IPO: growth stalls, valuation compressed • Corporate agenda| week 35 - 37</li></ul>

In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations edge higher, complicating WSP approach • E-commerce & Logistics | Shein Hong Kong IPO: growth stalls, valuation compressed • Corporate agenda| week 35 - 37

WSP Global Inc - What's News in Amsterdam

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a>, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing.
Shein is a global online fashion and lifestyle company serving approximately 273m active customers in approximately 160 markets in 2025.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation- Just like Its Wares, It Is Cheap But...

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise USD 1,768m. GS, MS and JPM are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the deal terms and recap our valuation note for the company.</li>
<li>We analyze cornerstone and sponsor performance and assess the risk-reward of the deal.</li>
</ul>


SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, launched its Hong Kong IPO to raise USD 1,768m. GS, MS and JPM are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the deal terms and recap our valuation note for the company.
We analyze cornerstone and sponsor performance and assess the risk-reward of the deal.


SHEIN (希音) IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Spain

Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. designs, manufactures, and distributes apparel.  The Company operates retail chains in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa.

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Industria De Diseno Textil SA (ITX SM)

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Cheap for Some Reason

SHEIN's plan to raise HK$13.1bn is aggressive, as the 3-year EPS CAGR will only be -5.3%. We need a sizeable safety margin to cover the risks and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

WSP Global Inc - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Unilever/MICC | most of Ben & Jerry’s claims against Unilever dismissed • Arcadis | combined stake friendly foundations...

The IDEA!

Aequitas: Shein Global Holdings IPO - Thoughts on Valuation- Just like Its Wares, It Is Cheap But...

SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, aims to raise up to US$1.8bn in its Hong Kong listing. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

SHEIN (希音) IPO: Analysis of Deal Terms

We analyze SHEIN's USD 1,768m Hong Kong IPO. We look at deal terms and track records of cornerstone investors and sponsors, as well as its...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

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