Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP.</li><li> Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance.</li><li> We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP. Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance. We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shein-global-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55372:1" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK)</a>, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248212" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:248735" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shein-global-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:252773" rel="noopener">SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look</a> </li>
<li>I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. </li>
</ul>



SHEIN Global Holdings (625 HK), a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion.
I discussed the IPO in SHEIN Global IPO: The Bull Case, SHEIN Global IPO: The Bear Case and SHEIN Global IPO: Valuation First-Look 
I have revised lower my forecasts following the 1H trading update. Shein is fairly valued at the IPO price range, leaving little to no upside for investors. 


SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.</li><li> With the flow of goods normalized as the company fully anniversaries the negative impact of tariffs, Vince stores are now driving Fall offerings, with a great assortment of sweaters, jackets, pants, dresses and key Fall driven goods as their customer base begins to shift their purchases to the next season.</li><li> Although early, we are already excited about the continued focus on multiple hues, great looking sweaters and outerwear and full price selling.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey. With the flow of goods normalized as the company fully anniversaries the negative impact of tariffs, Vince stores are now driving Fall offerings, with a great assortment of sweaters, jackets, pants, dresses and key Fall driven goods as their customer base begins to shift their purchases to the next season. Although early, we are already excited about the continued focus on multiple hues, great looking sweaters and outerwear and full price selling.

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning Streak Carries into Fall; Reiterate Buy, PT

Spain

Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. designs, manufactures, and distributes apparel.  The Company operates retail chains in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa.

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Industria De Diseno Textil SA (ITX SM)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of...

Small Cap Consumer Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

SHEIN Global (625 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

SHEIN, a global online fashion and lifestyle company, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.8 billion. In this note, I discuss valuation.

Arun George

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning Streak Carries into Fall; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and...

Small Cap Consumer Research

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