European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

​February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...