European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

<ul>
<li>H1 NAV rose 17% to SEK 225bn, driven by Sandvik, Volvo and Handelsbanken, while leverage declined to just 1% of NAV, reinforcing Industrivärden’s conservative financial profile.</li>
<li>Industrivärden now trades around NAV, with C shares at a 0.3% premium, reflecting portfolio quality and governance rather than a traditional holding-company discount.</li>
<li>With the discount eliminated and no obvious catalysts, returns are increasingly driven by the underlying portfolio, limiting scope for traditional event-driven or discount-convergence strategies.</li>
</ul>


H1 NAV rose 17% to SEK 225bn, driven by Sandvik, Volvo and Handelsbanken, while leverage declined to just 1% of NAV, reinforcing Industrivärden’s conservative financial profile.
Industrivärden now trades around NAV, with C shares at a 0.3% premium, reflecting portfolio quality and governance rather than a traditional holding-company discount.
With the discount eliminated and no obvious catalysts, returns are increasingly driven by the underlying portfolio, limiting scope for traditional event-driven or discount-convergence strategies.


Industrivärden H1 2026: Premium to NAV, Limited Optionality

<ul>
<li>Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.</li>
<li>GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.</li>
<li>Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.</li>
</ul>


Discount dispersion remains structural rather than market-driven. Governance, balance-sheet quality and catalyst visibility continue to explain valuation gaps across European holding companies better than underlying portfolio performance.
GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred opportunities. GBL offers long-term NAV compounding after recent widening, while Vivendi still trades at a substantial discount despite improving strategic optionality.
Nordic investment companies remain fully valued. Investor AB trades around NAV and Industrivärden at a premium, while Porsche SE and Rio continue reflecting persistent structural valuation anomalies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

<ul>
<li>June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.</li>
</ul>


June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.
Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.
Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Vivendi remains our highest-conviction idea, trading at a 43.6% discount to NAV despite UMG representing over 80% of value and potential corporate optionality.</li>
<li>Dispersion widened in May, with Vivendi rerating, Porsche SE's discount expanding, Rio's DLC premium increasing and Nordic holding companies remaining near NAV.</li>
<li>Catalysts continue to matter more than valuation: discounts converged only where strategic triggers emerged, while structurally cheap names without catalysts remained cheap.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi remains our highest-conviction idea, trading at a 43.6% discount to NAV despite UMG representing over 80% of value and potential corporate optionality.
Dispersion widened in May, with Vivendi rerating, Porsche SE's discount expanding, Rio's DLC premium increasing and Nordic holding companies remaining near NAV.
Catalysts continue to matter more than valuation: discounts converged only where strategic triggers emerged, while structurally cheap names without catalysts remained cheap.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2026 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden H1 2026: Premium to NAV, Limited Optionality

Industrivärden's operating performance remains familiar. Its valuation no longer is. We revisit the investment case after another period of NAV...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2026 Report

June reinforced a stock-pickers' market for holding companies. GBL and Vivendi remain our preferred ideas, while Nordic investment companies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

June brought renewed divergence across European ord/pref pairs. Structural outliers widened, convergence became more selective, and implementation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2026 Report

Holding company discounts are increasingly catalyst-driven. Vivendi remains the key idea at a 43.6% NAV discount, while Porsche SE, GBL and Rio...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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