Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$31bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 
Telcos
2.6
Scheme
25.6%


Vocus Back In Focus As MIRA Takes A Turn








Hong Kong




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 
Mobile devices
0.2
Possible MGO
7.0%


Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Possible Offer From Zhuhai SASAC



Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 
Logistics
2.2
Partial
11.22%


Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer



Sichuan Languang Justbon (2606 HK) 
Property services
0.7
MOU/Poss Offer
30%


Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Potential General Offer From Country Gardens






India








National Aluminium (NACL IN) 
Aluminium
0.1
Buyback Tender
30%


NALCO India Buyback Tender Offer: A Small Arb








Japan




Being Co Ltd (4734 JP) 
Software
0.1
Tender Offer
34.7%


MBO for Being Co (4734 JP): Tender Offer Is a Done Deal



Dynac Holdings Corporation (2675 JP) 
Restaurants
0.1
Tender Offer
11.5%


Dynac Corp (2675 JP) Tender Offer: Looks like a Done Deal



Japan Asia (3751 JP) 
Infrastructure
0.3
Tender Offer
1%


Japan Asia Group MBO Fails, Now JAG Against Murakami's Higher Bid 



Maeda Corp (1824 JP) &amp; Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) &amp; Maeda Seisakusho (6281 JP) 
Construction
4.0
Merger
14% for Maeda Road


Maeda Corp/Road/Seisakusho - 3-Way Merger 1 Year After Hostile Takeover 



N Field Co Ltd (6077 JP) 
Nursing care
0.2
Tender Offer
42.2%


N Field (6077) Take-Private by Unison Capital - Fast Growth Long Runway Asset Going Not So Rich



Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) 
Textiles
0.2
Tender Offer
31.7%


Sakai Ovex MBO - Wrong Price (And the Bidder Knows It)



Sanken Electric (6707 JP) 
Semis
0.2
Partial Tender
17.1%


Effissimo Launches Unsolicited/Hostile Partial Tender On Sanken Electric



Tsukui Corp (2398 JP) 
Nursing care
0.5
Tender Offer
51.7%


Tsukui Holdings (2398) - Another CHEAP Japan Nursing Care Take-Private Deal



Unimat Retirement Community (9707 JP) 

Nursing care
0.1
Tender Offer
28.4%


MBO for Unimat (9707 JP): Deserves a Bump!


 



Europe








Aggreko PLC (AGK LN) 
Energy
3.2
Offer
39%


Aggreko: £2bn Potential Bid from PE Consortium



Arrow Global (ARW LN) 
Debt purchaser
0.8
Offer
36.2%


Arrow Global - TDR Capital: Preliminary Conditional Proposal



ASTM SpA (AT IM) 
Infrastructure
4.0
Offer
28.8%


ASTM SpA - Nuova Argo Finanziaria Takeout Offer, Trading Tight



Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) 
Semi
6.0
Offer
20.3%


Dialog Semiconductor - Renesas Electronics Recommended Cash Offer



Signature Aviation (SIG LN) 
Aviation services
4.7
Scheme
53%


Signature Aviation - PE Consortium Agreed Offer








US




Hollysys Automation Technolo (HOLI US) 
Automation
1.0
Offer
36.7%


Hollysys (HOLI US): Machine Earning


Source: Smartkarma Insights





The above does not include the possible deal for Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) (Brilliance China (1114 HK): Grilling Kidneys). 

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~27.5%, with a year-to-date average of ~31%. This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in February of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

22-Feb: 1H21 results




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

1-Feb: WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) is free of all defeating conditions. Here is the Bidder's Statement. Offer closes on the 30 March - unless extended. 




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

18-Feb: Asaleo (ASX: AHY): Essity's Revised Offer




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

22-Feb: 1H21 results




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

16-Feb: Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best &amp; Final Offer
17-Feb: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer Raised 5.9%, Seems Like a Done Deal




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

26-Feb: Non-binding Offer from ROC of A$1.08/share by way of a Scheme.




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 

25-Feb: FY20 results










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

22-Feb: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Low Voter Turn-Out Sees Spread Widening




Car Inc (699 HK) 

18-Feb: Car Inc (699 HK)'s Offer unconditional in all respects. Offeror (MBK) holds 52.11%. Offer closes on the 4 March.




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

No February update




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

3-Feb: Despatch of Composite Doc pushed out to 20 Jan 2022.




HKC Holdings (190 HK) 

5-Feb: Despatch of Scheme Doc pushed out to 30 April this year.




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

19-Feb: Shareholders approved the Scheme at Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK)'s Scheme Meeting. Cheques to be despatched on or before 8 April.




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

19-Feb: Court to convene a meeting on the 4 March.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

17-Feb: Circular for New Century REIT (1275 HK) has been delayed until the 19 March - on or before. 




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 

11-Feb: As expected, Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) has extended the despatch of the Scheme Doc to 16 April.




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

5-Feb: Rivera Holdings (281 HK) Scheme Doc pushed way out to 7 June as the High Court has directed that the hearing of the originating summons for an order to issue its directions for convening the Court Meeting will only be held on 28 May 2021




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

11-Feb: SHK (666 HK): Scheme Doc Out, IFA Says Fair




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

No February update




Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) 

5-Feb: The pre-conditions for Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) have been satisfied. Composite Doc to be despatched on ore before the 31 March, about a week earlier than my prior estimate. 




Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 

11-Feb: As expected, the despatch of the Scheme Doc for Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) has been pushed back to the 21 April.










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No February update




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 

No February update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No February update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

19-Feb: Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
2-Feb: Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

14-Feb: Honshu Chemical - What WAS the Wrong Price Gets Wronger




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

4-Feb: Overbid: JAG Special Committee Plays Stupid so Murakami Plays Hardball
20-Feb: Japan Asia Group MBO Fails, Now JAG Against Murakami's Higher Bid




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

Tender Offer was successful.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

12-Feb: Toa Oil (5008) Tender - Has the Dog Caught the Car?
17-Feb: Toa Oil (5008) - The Dog Has Caught the Car, But Beware Mangalores 25 Feb: Toa Oil (5008) - Idemitsu Looking To The Next Attempt?




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 

3-Feb: Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) replied to questions posed to it by Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) in the latter's Opinion Statement regarding NSC's tender offer.  It is quite clear, and quite non-combative, relatively speaking. 











Malaysia


Comments (with links to announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

5-Feb: Compulsory acquisition notice sent out




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

16-Feb: Offer extended until the 2 March 25-Feb: Offer extended until the 15 March












New Zealand


Comments (with links announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

4-Feb: Lots of interest in Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 












Philippines


Comments (with links announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

17-Feb:  There's been an amendment to the partial offer for Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM). The maximum to be acquired will now be 1.43bn shares or 31.5%.   
"the reduction is intended to address concerns and the risk that LPZ may still fall below the public ownership requirement despite the initial reduced maximum number of shares to be acquired."  The Tender Offer price remains at P3.85 per share. The Tender Offer period will be extended from February 19, 2021, to March 8, 2021.











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 

15-Feb: Pre-cons met. Offer doc to be sent 14-21 from this date.
15-Feb: AEM's Privatization Deal for CEI Limited (CEI SP): Pre-Condition Satisfied




GL Ltd (GLL SP) 

4-Feb: Offer Doc for GL Ltd (GLL SP) is out. The Circular, which will include an IFA opinion, is expected to be despatched on or before the 18 Feb. 
18-Feb: The Circular is out for GL Ltd (GLL SP). The IFA says the Offer is not fair but reasonable.




Penguin International (PBS SP) 

24-Feb: Penguin International (PBS SP)'s Circular is out - independent directors and IFA recommend shareholders accept Emet Grace offer.




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

18-Feb: Soilbuild REIT: Scheme Doc Out. EGM Convened










Taiwan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

24-Feb: The Taiwan Fair Trade Commission has "approved" the takeover of Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) by Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT). This is a little earlier than expected. Fubon Financial Deal for Jih Sun Gets TFTC Signoff





















North America


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)





51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) 

No February update




China Biologic Products (CBPO US) 

China Biologic calls EGM on 1 March to consider proposed take-private



HUYA Inc (HUYA US)
No February update



PNM Resources (PNM US) 
12-Feb: PNM Resources shareholders supported the integration with Avangrid, Iberdrola's US subsidiary. The approval represents another milestone in the integration process between the New Mexico and Texas power company and the Iberdrola group company.
The operation, which already has the approval of the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States (CFIUS) and Hart Scott Rodino Clearance (HSR), expects to obtain all the necessary approvals at both the state and federal levels throughout 2021.




Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US) 

22-Feb: What's Going On With Sina Corp?




Sogou Inc (SOGO US) 
4-Feb: FY20 results




Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) 
1-Feb: Offer to expire on the 26 Feb.






































New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Infratil Reverting to a 'New Normal'

NEUTRAL
IFT held a confident investor day with the first half focussed on longer term opportunities within renewables and healthcare and the second half focussed on its core value drivers, Canberra Data Centres (CDC) and Vodafone NZ. We walk away encouraged by the pace of progress for Longroad Energy (US based renewables) and Galileo Green Energy (Europe based renewables) where the case for substantial long term value creation was clearly laid out. Shorter term, we believe IFT's share price will be dominated by the strategic review of Tilt Renewables (TLT), CDC's performance and valuation and Vodafone NZ along with the potential for an increased offer price by the Australian Super Fund. There was no incremental newsflow out of the investor day related to these key value drivers and we remain NEUTRAL with a slightly increased target price of NZ$7.85.&nbsp;


What's changed?&nbsp;



Earnings:&nbsp;Our proportionate FY21/22/23 EBITDAF forecasts increase&nbsp;by +2%/+7%/+7% driven by the incorporation of&nbsp;Qscan.
Target price:&nbsp;Increases&nbsp;to NZ$7.85 (from NZ$7.70), primarily due to the mark to market&nbsp;of TLT.&nbsp;



Attractive internal investment opportunities; a scarce asset to be appreciated


In today's ultra low yield environment a wall of capital is chasing diminishing investment returns, driving share prices up and bond yields down. In this context we find it very encouraging that IFT does not appear to be running low on attractive investment opportunities with double digit target returns within its existing portfolio companies. Specifically, we were encouraged by the pace at which both Longroad Energy (US) and Galileo Green Energy (Europe) have evolved. Both of these investments have the potential to grow into meaningful parts of the broader IFT portfolio over the next 5–10 years. However, near-term we do not believe that the development of these two assets will be a meaningful driver of IFT's NAV or share price.&nbsp;


TLT conclusion likely within the next few months; no shortages of future ideas and opportunities


There were no firm progress updates on the ongoing TLT strategic review but IFT's outgoing CEO, Marko Bogoievski, expects a "solid update" by financial year end (March 31). He also indicated that the potential NZ$1.5bn of proceeds for TLT "may be conservative". A TLT valuation of NZ$1.5bn compares to IFT's stake at the current market price of c. NZ$1.6bn, suggesting that current proposals are comfortably circling where TLT is currently trading. While far from certain, at this point we view it as likely that TLT will be sold leaving IFT with up to NZ$2bn of capital to invest. IFT's incoming CEO, Jason Boyes, suggested that there were "no shortages of ideas and opportunities", some of which may be considered outside of IFT's traditional area of expertise, namely scalable infrastructure. Amongst many potential investments, IFT listed next generation assets such as Artificial Intelligence, Robotics and 5G technology. We view it as more likely that IFT would buy some mobile towers than take on&nbsp; Alphabet's&nbsp;&nbsp;Waymo, but we have been surprised before.&nbsp;



Aaron Ibbotson CFA
aaron.ibbotson@forsythbarr.co.nz
+64 9 368 0024





Matt Montgomerie
matt.montgomerie@forsythbarr.co.nz
+64 9 368 0124



<div>
Last Week in Event SPACE ...
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Reportedly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/faw-car-company-limited-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6497:1" rel="noopener">Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH)</a> is allegedly jostling to take a turn at the wheel of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP)</a> is now an overpriced stock with a supply overhang. The hope of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nabtesco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1" rel="noopener">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a> event is now gone.</li>
<li>Whoever takes control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">Sawada Holdings (8699 JP)</a> is going to see the bulk of its major asset liquidated. Buy this stock with both hands at ¥760/share.</li>
<li>
Murakami-affiliated bidder City Index Eleventh has launched an overbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-asia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12428:1" rel="noopener">Japan Asia (3751 JP)</a> at ¥1,210/share. The explanation is an eye-opener, and the strategy is very well done.
</li>
<li>Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> to sell more shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>,  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.</li>
</ul>
</div>
(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)


Last Week in Event SPACE ...



Reportedly Faw Car Company Limited A (000800 CH) is allegedly jostling to take a turn at the wheel of Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK).

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP) is now an overpriced stock with a supply overhang. The hope of a Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP) event is now gone.
Whoever takes control of Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) is going to see the bulk of its major asset liquidated. Buy this stock with both hands at ¥760/share.

Murakami-affiliated bidder City Index Eleventh has launched an overbid for Japan Asia (3751 JP) at ¥1,210/share. The explanation is an eye-opener, and the strategy is very well done.

Ahead of the three-year anniversary lock-up expiring next month, enabling Prosus (PRX NA)/Naspers (NPN SJ) to sell more shares of Tencent Holdings (700 HK),  Naspers' look-thru discount of 55% compares with 34% at the time of the Prosus spin-off in September 2019. 




Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins.


(This insight covers specific insights &amp; comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Brilliance China, Harmonic Drive, Sawada, Japan Asia, Naspers/Tencent

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven



For the month of January, 22 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$52bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.





New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 
Waste collection
1.8
Scheme
19.8%



Bingo Industries (ASX: BIN): Talking Trash
Bingo Industries (BIN AU): CPE/MIRA's Scavenger Hunt




Hong Kong




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 
Construction
0.4
Merger by Absorption
45.1%



China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Possible Offer
China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Delisting Offer From Parent




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 
Real Estate
0.4
Scheme
61.3%


Polytec Asset (208 HK): Offer By Way Of A Scheme



HKC Holdings (190 HK) 
Holding Co.
0.2
Scheme
120.39%



China Renewable Energy (987 HK): Possible Privatisation Offer
HKC (190 HK): Take-Private Offer By Way Of A Scheme




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 
Hospitality
0.25
Scheme-like
14.3%


New Century (1275 HK): Closing Down Sale



Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 
Real estate
0.1
Scheme
62.5%


Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting



China Traditional Chinese (570 HK) 
TCM
3.0
??
??


Trad Chi Med (570 HK): Sinopharm's Feverish Proposal



Zhejiang New Century Hotel (1158 HK) 
Hospitality
0.65
Merger by Absorption
24.7%


Zhejiang New Century (1158 HK): Pre-Conditional Offer



Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 
Ports
0.2
Scheme
37.8%


Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): Zhuhai SASAC Reloads With Scheme Offer



India




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 
Engineering
0.1
Buyback tender
10%


Hefty Engineers India Buyback Tender - Worth The Arb If You Own



Japan




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 
Wire rope
0.2
Partial
39%



Nippon Steel's HOSTILE Partial Tender Offer for Tokyo Rope: A Move to Mark Territory?
New Money for Old Rope? Gaming Out A Hostile Partial Offer on Tokyo Rope (5981)




Singapore




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 
Electronics
0.1
VGO
16.2%


CEI Limited (CEI SP): Privatization Deal by AEM Holdings (AEM SP) Trading with a View to Complete



GL Ltd (GLL SP) 
Hospitality
0.2
VGO
25.0%


GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco



Penguin International (PBS SP) 
Boat builder
0.1
VGO
30%


Penguin International (PBS SP): Friendly Privatization Deal Might Need A Bump



Europe




CA Immobilien Anlagen AG (CAI AV) 
Real estate
3.8
Offer
16.9%


CA Immo - Starwood: Mandatory Offer



Carrefour SA (CA FP) 
Convenience
20.0
Merger
29.3%


Carrefour - Alimentation Couche-Tard Non-Binding Offer



Enlabs AB (NLAB SS) 
Sports betting
0.3
Offer
1.1%


Enlabs - Entain Beefing Up



Entain (ENT LN) 
Entertainment
11.0
Offer
22%


MGM's Prospective Offer for Entain



Liberbank SA (LBK SM) 
Financing
0.9
Merger



Liberbank - Unicaja Agreed Merger



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) 
Energy
6.0
Partial offer
20%


IFM Investors to Launch a Partial Hostile Tender Offer for Naturgy



Handicare Group AB (HANDI SS) 
Medi aid
0.4
Offer
22.0%


Handicare - Savaria: Recommended Offer



Tikkurila Oyj (TIK1V FH) 
Paints
1.7
Offer
84.5%


Akzo Nobel Tops PPG's Offer for Tikkurila


Source: Smartkarma Insights




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~35%. This compared to the average premium in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in January of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar


(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

21-Jan: Non-binding term sheet entered into




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

18-Jan:
WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) has bumped its Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) to 1 new WAM share for every 2.675 AYS share; or A$0.70/share cash per share, from 1 new WAM share for every 2.7 AYS share; or A$0.695/share cash per share. AYS' largest shareholder, Longfrist with 19.19%, supports WAM's Offer.




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

27-Jan: Independent board rejects non-binding proposal




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

27-Jan: Shandong to compulsory acquire shares. Shares to be cease trading on the 3 Feb




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Jan: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer: A Bump Forthcoming?




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

3-Jan: SS&amp;C withdraws proposal for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU).




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

20-Jan Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)withdraws




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No January update




WPP PLC (WPP LN) 

No January update










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

31-Dec: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Doc Out. IFA Says Fair &amp; Reasonable
11-Jan: As expected, SAIF (6.13% of total issued H  shares, and 11.53% of independent H shares; and Goldwind (2.83% &amp; 5.32% respectively) have given letters of intent to support the Offer. 
25-Jan:Quiddity M&amp;A : A Guide To Mergers By Absorption




Car Inc (699 HK) 

7-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  Are We Missing Anything?
26-Jan: Car Inc (699 HK):  No, We Are Not Missing Anything




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

18-Jan: Bloomberg is reporting that Blackstone Group Inc., ESR Cayman Ltd., and JD Logistics Inc. are among bidders for control of China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) is also reportedly in the mix.




Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 

1-Jan: Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) delays the dispatch of the Composite Doc to the 22 January. 
15-Jan: Doc issued. Fist close is the 5 Feb




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

27-Jan: Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

20-Jan: Pre-cons satisfied. 




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

11-Jan: Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) shareholders approved the merger. 12 Jan was the last day of trading. 




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

No January update




Tonly Electronics Holdings (1249 HK) 

29-Jan: Tonly Electronics (1249 HK): Scheme Doc Out. IFA Says Fair




China Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK) 

18-Jan:  Zhongdi Dairy (1492 HK): Doc Out. Compulsory Acquisition Afforded










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No January update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No January update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

11-Jan: Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More










Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No January update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No January update




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).
18-Jan: Murakami Fund's Tender for JAG (3751):  May Be Rangebound Near-Term
26-Jan: Japan Asia Group (3751): Murakami Wins the Mother Of All Bumps +100% 




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

4-Jan: Black Clover today reported they owned 12.29% of Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 
23-Jan: Joban Kaihatsu MBO Price Bumped, Tender Extended: Still Not Rolling In Clover




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

13-Jan Tender offer fails. Funny that. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

9-Jan: Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) reported  that SMFL MIrai Partners had completed the Tender Offer for Kenedix shares and ended up with 62.35%
12-Jan: FTSE announced today that it would reduce the weight of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) in its index from 97.7309% to 34.90958490918% while keeping the share count unchanged at 218,917,200 shares. The change takes place at the close of business on the 14th of January




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

Delisted 13 January




Pressance Corp (3254 JP) 

17-Jan: Pressance Partial Tender - Almost EVERYONE Tendered




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

Delisted on Jan 19




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

19-Jan: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announced the results of its Tender Offer for Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP). That will trigger an EGM and a resulting squeezeout.  It will also trigger a FTSE and MSCI downweight.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

13-Jan: Toa Oil (5008) Tender Offer Update - Looks Bumpity
14-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position in Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) from 20.86% (as of the last report) to 21.89% (as of the 6th of January). 
28-Jan: Cornwall Capital announced it had increased its position to 22.98%










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No January update




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

26-Jan: FGV (FGB MK): IFA Says Offer Not Fair








New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

28-Jan: Announced a strategic review of 51%-held Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ) 








Philippines


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

21-Jan: Tender Offer report despatched. Closing date is the 19 Feb,










Singapore


Comments 




Hi P International (HIP SP) 

No January update




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

24-Jan: First court hearing to be held on the 8 Feb.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

6-Jan: Fubon Financial Offer for Jih Sun Gets Even Weirder
7-Jan: Taiwanese news agency CNA has said that the FSC is investigating whether or not Capital Target Limited and its Responsible Officer Derek MD Chen (who I had believed to be the Responsible Person) is indeed the controller of Capital Target Limited.




Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 

Tender Offer was completed, 100% pro-ration. (Japanese)













Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


22-Jan: Offer declared unconditional




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 


18-Jan: Sche doc issued




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

No January update




KAZ Minerals (KAZ LN) 

25-Jan:  KAZ Minerals




Siltronic AG (WAF GR) 

25-Jan: GlobalWafers Ups Offer for Siltronic




Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
28-Jan: Roar bumps Offer



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No January update



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
No January update



Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP) 
11-Jan: Veolia Steps up Pressure on Suez







For the month of December, 19 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 
Toiletries
0.3
Possible Scheme
24.7%


Asaleo (ASX: AHY)/Essity: Bottom Feeders







amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 
Mobile operator
0.2
Off-market takeover




Amaysim/WAM: A Question Of Franking Credits
Amaysim (AYS AU): A WAM RAM Stoush




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 
Marketing
0.1
Scheme
71%



WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work WPP AUNZ: More Mad Men At Work







Hong Kong




China Logistics Property (1589 HK) 
Logistics

Possible Offer



China Logistics (1589 HK): Possible Offer As Major Shareholders Seek Exit



Cowell E Holdings (1415 HK) 
Parts supplier
0.6
Possible MGO
2.98%


Cowell (1415 HK): "Maintain Listing" MGO



Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 
Service provider
0.1
Scheme
26.8%



Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Scheme Offer
Huifu Payment (1806 HK): Early Withdrawal?




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 
Fashion
0.2
Scheme
54.6%


I.T. (999 HK): Management/CVC-Led Offer



SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 
Securities
0.1
Scheme
50.0%


SHK (666 HK): Allied Group Further Cleans House With Scheme Offer






Japan




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 
Refiner
0.2
Tender Offer
23%


Idemitsu Launches Lowball Tender Offer for Subsidiary Toa Oil (5008)










Malaysia




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 
Palm Plantation
0.6
MTO
2.4%



FGV Holdings: Reading the Palm Fronds
FGV Holdings: Low-Ball MTO Triggered











New Zealand




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 
Utilities
3.8
Possible Scheme
22.2%


Infratil (IFT NZ): Big Super's Infrastructure Grab






Philippines




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 
Utilities
0.2
Vol. delisting
25%


Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM): Reverse Voluntary Delisting










Singapore




Hi P International (HIP SP) 
Manufacturing
0.2
Unconditional Offer
13.6%


Hi-P International: Unconditional Offer



Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 
REIT
0.4
Scheme



Soilbuild REIT: Offer From Blackstone/Lim Family










Taiwan




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 
Finance
1.8
Tender Offer
18.7%


Fubon Financial Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial



Thinflex Corp (3144 TT) 
Manufacturing
0.1
Partial Offer
7.15%


Arisawa (5208 JP) Partial Tender for ThinFlex (3144 TT)










Europe




Calisen PLC (1779730D LN) 
Energy
1.9
Cash Offer
26.3%


Recommended Private Equity Cash Offer



Recipharm AB (RECIB SS) 
Pharmaceuticals
2.8
Mandatory Offer
22.9%


Recipharm-EQT Takeout



Tele Columbus AG (TC1 GR) 
Fibre networks
0.5
Voluntary Offer
41.3%


Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid


Source: Smartkarma Insights 




The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~27% and the YTD average premium for all deals discussed on Smartkarma (158 all-in) is ~31%.  The average for all deals discussed on Smartkarma in 2019 (145 deals all-in) was, coincidentally, 31.5%.


The charts below provide a snapshot of deals YTD discussed on Smartkarma. Where the deal is a merger of equals or similar, I've assigned no premium.







Summary of News in December of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No December update




Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) 

23-Dec: Cardinal Resources: Shandong's Indicative Bump
24-Dec: Cardinal Resources (CDV AU). Exit Nord Gold, Enter Dongshan.




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

No December update




DWS Ltd (DWS AU) 

24-Dec: Scheme effective




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

7-Dec: Link Admin (LNK AU): SS&amp;C Trumps PEP/Carlyle




Northern Star Resources (NST AU) 

10-Dec: Scheme book registered with ASIC for the Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) / Northern Star Resources (NST AU) merger. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Regis Healthcare (REG AU) 

No December update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

No December update




Village Roadshow (VRL AU) 

4-Dec: BGH declares Offer for Village Roadshow (VRL AU) "best and final".   7-Dec: Both resolutions passed - 83.71% for Structure A and 84.95% for Structure B. Trading in Village Roadshow (VRL AU) to be suspended at the close of trading on the 16 December. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

No December update











Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

8-Dec: Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)'s composite doc delayed, as expected, to 31 Dec (on or before), from 8 Dec.
31-Dec: Composite doc is now out. THe H share class meeting is the 19 Feb. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Car Inc (699 HK) 
4-Dec: Car Inc (699 HK) has delayed the despatch of its Composite Doc to "within 7 days of fulfilment of the Pre-Conditions or 21 May 2021 (being 7 days following the No December update



CIMC-TianDa Holdings (445 HK) 
24-Dec: Scheme approved




Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) 

10-Dec: StubWorld: Last Roll Of The Dice For Haier




Hengxing Gold Holding (2303 HK) 

22-Dec: Scheme Document has now been issued. The EGM is the 13 January. First day of dealing in the new SDGM H shares is the 5 February. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) 

5-Dec: Pre-cons fulfilled for the Shanghai Prime Machinery H (2345 HK) Offer. Composite Doc to be despatched on or before the 11 December. 
10-Dec: Offer doc despatched.




Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) 

18-Dec: The MGO for Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) has closed with Alibaba holding 83.37%. The free float has fallen to 15.8159%. Alibaba will take steps to restore the float. Shares will continue to trade. 












India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No December update




Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) 

No December update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

2-Dec: INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) has been on a tear since just before earnings on 10 November.  The stock is up nearly 40% since the beginning of November.  Standalone net profit rose 262%yoy in the quarter to Rs 35.84 crore. Sales were down 10%yoy to Rs 394.58 crore.











Japan


Comments (with links to insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No December update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No December update




Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) 

9-Dec: The results of the Imasen Electric Industrial (7266 JP) Tender Offer have been announced. 7.161mm shares were tendered against a 5.209mm share buy which means a 72.75% pro-ration. 




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

11-Dec: City Index Eleventh is now 14.91% of the register at Japan Asia (3751 JP).




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

25-Dec: The bidder for Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) announced a change in the end date for the Tender Offer, changing the end date from 28 December 2020 to 25 January 2021.  28-Dec: Today Black Clover Limited reported that they had increased their position in Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) to 10.97%. 




Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP) 

10-Dec: The Tender Offer for Kansai Mirai Financial (7321 JP), interestingly, ended up gaining more shares tendered than the minimum. 34.44mm showed up. The pro-ration is 100% so no issues there, but it likely means other cross-holders decided to take the cash.




Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) 

17-Dec:  UGS and Strategic extended their partial tender offer for Keihanshin Building (8818 JP) from 17 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021. It is not clear why - if the shares fall a bit, they could get hit, otherwise this is destined to be unsuccessful. 




Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) 

7-Dec: Fidelity was a 9+% holder of Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)  prior to the Tender Offer being launched and today reported that they are a 0.92% holder triggered by a change effective on 30 November.




Medical &amp; Biological Laboratories (4557 JP) 

No December update




NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) 

2-Dec: The NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) selldown for TOPIX was expected to be 30-33mm shares. We saw 34.8mm shares on the day which is about 26-28mm shares more than normal. That should be the last of the Docomo selling by passive. From now until month-end it is basically just the residual and arbs selling to each other.




Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) 

11-Dec: It appears that DCM Holdings (3050 JP) has not extended the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) which they had extended until today.  That suggests they are done with their bid, or that they will go in partnership to launch a new one.  I expect it is the former.
14-Dec: DCM Holdings (3050 JP)'s Tender Offer lapses.  They needed 19+mm shares to succeed. They got 32,000.  Nothing done here.  It looks like Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s bid for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP) goes through.
29-Dec: Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) today announced that it had successfully completed the Tender Offer for Shimachu Co Ltd (8184 JP), gaining 77.04% of the shares outstanding. 




Softbrain (4779 JP) 

No December update




Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) 

No December update




Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 

1-Dec: Tokyo Dome – Assessing the Realism of Oasis Estimates
3-Dec: ISS Takes Umbrage with Tokyo Dome, Recommends Booting the CEO from the Board
8-Dec: Oasis Agrees To Tender Tokyo Dome (9681) - This Changes Things
17-Dec: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) announces Tender Agreement with Oasis on Tokyo Dome Corp (9681 JP) 




Yomiuri Land (9671 JP) 

No December update










Malaysia


Comments (with links to insights and announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

No December update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (SSREITR SP) 

6-Dec: Chalk one up for investors as the ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) / Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (SSREIT SP) merger is voted down.













Thailand


Comments 




COL PCL (COL TB) 
No December update












Middle East


Comments 




Samba Financial Group (SAMBA AB) /
National Commercial Bank (NCB AB) 

No December update










Europe/UK


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)




Ahlstrom-Munksjo (AM1 FH) 
No December update



Altice NV A (ATC NA) 


16-Dec: Next Private increases offer price to EUR 5.35 Boussard &amp; Gavaudan, Diameter, Elliott, LB Partners, Lucerne, Sessa, Sheffield and Winterbrook commit to tender their Listed Shares under the Offer.




Aryzta AG (ARYN VX) 


No December update




CaixaBank SA (CABK SM) 
7-Dec: CaixaBank - Bankia: Merger Approval at the EGMs, Spread




Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) 

28-Dec: Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up




G4S PLC (GFS LN) 

2-Dec: GardaWorld has increased its offer for G4S PLC (GFS LN) to GBp 235/ share and has said that the new offer is final and will not be increased further.
8-Dec: G4S has agreed to a 245 pence per share takeover offer from U.S.-based Allied Universal, the companies said on Tuesday, days after Canada’s GardaWorld had sweetened its bid to 235 pence per share for the British company.
11-Dec: Allied Universal's Agreed Offer




Globalwafers (6488 TT) 
21-Dec: GlobalWafers Cash Offer




Play Communications SA (1P1 GR) 
No December update



RSA Insurance (RSA LN) 
No December update



Talktalk Telecom (TALK LN) 
No December update



William Hill (WMH LN) 
No December update





New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

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Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)

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