Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ingredion Inc. reported a mixed performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting both achievements and challenges across its business segments.</li><li>The company reached record full-year operating income and earnings per share, supported by enduring strength in its Texture and Healthful Solutions segment and commendable results from its Food and Industrial Ingredients Latin America (LatAm) division.</li><li>Despite these successes, operational headwinds at a key facility and industry-wide demand issues tempered broader performance.</li></ul>

Ingredion Inc. reported a mixed performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting both achievements and challenges across its business segments.The company reached record full-year operating income and earnings per share, supported by enduring strength in its Texture and Healthful Solutions segment and commendable results from its Food and Industrial Ingredients Latin America (LatAm) division.Despite these successes, operational headwinds at a key facility and industry-wide demand issues tempered broader performance.

Ingredion's Portfolio Shift: Why Texture and Healthful Solutions Matter More Than Ever!

<ul><li>Ingredion Inc.'s third-quarter 2025 results presented a challenging picture with a decline in both net sales and adjusted operating income compared to previous guidance.</li><li>Despite the struggles, the company remains optimistic about achieving full-year operational income growth, leveraging its diversified business portfolio.</li><li>The quarter was marked by a 3% decrease in net sales, influenced by a drop in both sales volume and price/mix across various segments, although foreign exchange provided a slight offset.</li></ul>

Ingredion Inc.'s third-quarter 2025 results presented a challenging picture with a decline in both net sales and adjusted operating income compared to previous guidance.Despite the struggles, the company remains optimistic about achieving full-year operational income growth, leveraging its diversified business portfolio.The quarter was marked by a 3% decrease in net sales, influenced by a drop in both sales volume and price/mix across various segments, although foreign exchange provided a slight offset.

Ingredion Expands Its Healthful Solutions Portfolio — Will Double-Digit Profit Growth Transform Its Future?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,642 points and the support at 1,610/1,600 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on TRUE, BBL and GULF.</li><li>Negative momentum may be generated by concerns that foreign investors will remain net sellers as they seek to reduce FX risk caused by baht depreciation, while some may want to lock in profit for window dressing.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,642 points and the support at 1,610/1,600 points.We recommend trading buy on TRUE, BBL and GULF.Negative momentum may be generated by concerns that foreign investors will remain net sellers as they seek to reduce FX risk caused by baht depreciation, while some may want to lock in profit for window dressing.

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ingredion’s recommended 615p offer validates the strategic thesis outlined in our initiation note. Disclosed synergies worth roughly 148p/share help explain why a seemingly rich premium still supports attractive buyer economics.</li>
<li>At 561.5p, Tate trades at a 9.5% gross spread to agreed consideration, while the market continues to imply only a ~78% probability of completion despite Board support and irrevocables.</li>
<li>The transaction requires support from roughly 70% of the remaining register and is not expected to complete until 2H27, leaving investors with ~6.3% annualised return.</li>
</ul>


Ingredion’s recommended 615p offer validates the strategic thesis outlined in our initiation note. Disclosed synergies worth roughly 148p/share help explain why a seemingly rich premium still supports attractive buyer economics.
At 561.5p, Tate trades at a 9.5% gross spread to agreed consideration, while the market continues to imply only a ~78% probability of completion despite Board support and irrevocables.
The transaction requires support from roughly 70% of the remaining register and is not expected to complete until 2H27, leaving investors with ~6.3% annualised return.


Ingredion/Tate & Lyle: The Synergies Are Baked In — The Spread Isn't

United States

Ingredion Incorporated refines corn and produces sweeteners and starches.  The Company has customers in a wide range of industries, including the food, soft drink, brewing, pharmaceutical, corrugating, paper, and textile industries.  Ingredion has Company-owned operations, joint ventures, alliances, and technical licenses in countries around the world.

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Ingredion Inc (INGR US)

Ingredion's Portfolio Shift: Why Texture and Healthful Solutions Matter More Than Ever!

Ingredion Inc. reported a mixed performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, highlighting both achievements and challenges across its...

Baptista Research

Ingredion Expands Its Healthful Solutions Portfolio — Will Double-Digit Profit Growth Transform Its Future?

Ingredion Inc.'s third-quarter 2025 results presented a challenging picture with a decline in both net sales and adjusted operating income...

Baptista Research

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

The SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the resistance at 1,630/1,642 points and the support at 1,610/1,600 points. We recommend...

Krungthai XSpring

Ingredion/Tate & Lyle: The Synergies Are Baked In — The Spread Isn't

Tate & Lyle's recommended sale validates the strategic thesis. The premium looks large, but disclosed synergies suggest the economics may be more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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