External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.</li><li>Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.</li><li>In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

<ul><li>We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.</li><li>In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.</li><li>Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

<ul><li>3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.</li><li>In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.</li><li>When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

<ul><li>1H ended with 3 beats, 3 misses and 5 in-lines. The wrap-up of 1H/ 2Q earnings season has largely reset market expectation with latest earnings forecasts, management guidance and hence a refreshed 2H outlook.</li><li>In the near term, in our view, when the PPI-CPI scissor gap continues to narrow, market likely refocuses on the legitimation of any GPM expansion for staple players.</li><li>Meanwhile, lockdown risks prompt us to reside with plays that enjoy high online sales mix, and more importantly, relevant to the upcoming Double 11 campaign.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H ended with 3 beats, 3 misses and 5 in-lines. The wrap-up of 1H/ 2Q earnings season has largely reset market expectation with latest earnings forecasts, management guidance and hence a refreshed 2H outlook.In the near term, in our view, when the PPI-CPI scissor gap continues to narrow, market likely refocuses on the legitimation of any GPM expansion for staple players.Meanwhile, lockdown risks prompt us to reside with plays that enjoy high online sales mix, and more importantly, relevant to the upcoming Double 11 campaign.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Staples – A diverging 1H; mix upgrade and cost savings were keys to stay relevant

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.</li><li>As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.</li><li>With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.</li></ul>

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance.As a result, product flows to distributors and retailers have materially improved, and stock levels for both English Label and China Label have returned to targeted levels.With uncertainty still relatively elevated and ATM now trading on a 12-month forward PE of ~28x, broadly in line with history, we continue to see a balanced risk–reward profile.

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with...

CMB International

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD

CMB International

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below...

CMB International

China Consumer Staples – A diverging 1H; mix upgrade and cost savings were keys to stay relevant

In the near term, in our view, when the PPI-CPI scissor gap continues to narrow, market likely refocuses on the legitimation of any GPM expansion...

CMB International

The a2 Milk Company Bottlenecks Breaking

The a2 Milk Company (ATM) provided a positive update on its supply chain and FY26 guidance. As a result, product flows to distributors and...

Forsyth Barr

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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