HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese government will continue to boost the slowing domestic economy by supporting consumption. The A-share consumer staples sector, which is less volatile than discretionary, will be benefited.</li>
<li>We see attractive stories for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanxi-xinghuacun-fen-wine-factory-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9288:1" rel="noopener">Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine (600809 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (600887 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-jian-anjoy-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30110:1" rel="noopener">Fu Jian Anjoy Foods (603345 CH)</a>.  </li>
<li>While they are trading on high-end of peer multiples, their earnings quality, leadership status and product premiumisation provide good justifications for valuation. Also, all of them have solid financial position.  </li>
</ul>


Chinese government will continue to boost the slowing domestic economy by supporting consumption. The A-share consumer staples sector, which is less volatile than discretionary, will be benefited.
We see attractive stories for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine (600809 CH), Foshan Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial (600887 CH) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods (603345 CH).  
While they are trading on high-end of peer multiples, their earnings quality, leadership status and product premiumisation provide good justifications for valuation. Also, all of them have solid financial position.  


China A-Share Consumer Staples: An Analysis of the Opportunities Ahead

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27 January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> entered an agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. </li>
<li>CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27 January 2023, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) entered an agreement with Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in GAPack (468 HK). 
That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. 
CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?


GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

<ul>
<li>Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austasia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36655:1" rel="noopener">AustAsia Group (2425 HK)</a> should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. </li>
<li>Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. </li>
<li>Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company AustAsia Group (2425 HK) should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. 
Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. 
Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.


China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. </li>
<li>Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade - a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.</li>
<li>Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.</li>
</ul>


While focus on dividend yield is common, we think secular growth in DPS over a long period of time is a stronger marker of robust earnings trajectory and shareholder friendliness. 
Among stocks in Asian EM and DM, we screen 50 that raised their DPS every year over the past decade - a commendable performance given earnings dislocations during this period.
Stocks from Japan (24), HK (10), onshore China (6), India (6), Singapore (2) and Taiwan (2) make up our list. 10 are large and liquid with strong forecast EPS growth.


Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our "Asia 50".

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Shengmu Organic Milk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on the Offer Price of HK$0.35, P/B is 0.69x. This valuation level is lower than the historical average and also has a certain discount compared to the industry average.</li>
<li>CSM's net profit may return to positive by 2026. After profitability returns to normal, its P/B ratio is expected to approach 0.8-1x at least. Then reasonable valuation level is HK$0.41-0.51/share.</li>
<li>Since minorities representing 18.74% of CSM outstanding shares needs to tender to hit the “50% hurdle”, this brings uncertainties as the Offer Price may not be attractive to some minorities.</li>
</ul>


Based on the Offer Price of HK$0.35, P/B is 0.69x. This valuation level is lower than the historical average and also has a certain discount compared to the industry average.
CSM's net profit may return to positive by 2026. After profitability returns to normal, its P/B ratio is expected to approach 0.8-1x at least. Then reasonable valuation level is HK$0.41-0.51/share.
Since minorities representing 18.74% of CSM outstanding shares needs to tender to hit the “50% hurdle”, this brings uncertainties as the Offer Price may not be attractive to some minorities.


China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) To Acquire China Shengmu (1432 HK) - The Offer Price Is Not Attractive

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

Nothing like bringing one of your customers - China Mengniu - on board (so to speak), both as a substantial shareholder (5.01%) and board member...

David Blennerhassett

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our "Asia 50".

Focusing on secular DPS growth over the past decade, we screen 50 Asian stocks, from JP (24), HK (10), CN (6), India (6), SG (2) & TW (2). They...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) To Acquire China Shengmu (1432 HK) - The Offer Price Is Not Attractive

The Offer Price of HK$0.35 is low. Reasonable range is HK$0.41-0.51/share after CSM's profitability returns to normal by 2026. Uncertainties arise...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China A-Share Consumer Staples: An Analysis of the Opportunities Ahead

With the recent IPOs of Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Fujian Anjoy Foods (planned), we think the interest in China's consumer staples sector will...

Osbert Tang, CFA

GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

Nothing like bringing one of your customers - China Mengniu - on board (so to speak), both as a substantial shareholder (5.01%) and board member...

David Blennerhassett

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Equities: Secular DPS Growth Matters, Not Just Dividend Yield. Presenting Our "Asia 50".

​Focusing on secular DPS growth over the past decade, we screen 50 Asian stocks, from JP (24), HK (10), CN (6), India (6), SG (2) & TW (2). They...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) To Acquire China Shengmu (1432 HK) - The Offer Price Is Not Attractive

The Offer Price of HK$0.35 is low. Reasonable range is HK$0.41-0.51/share after CSM's profitability returns to normal by 2026. Uncertainties arise...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Focusing on secular DPS growth over the past decade, we screen 50 Asian stocks, from JP (24), HK (10), CN (6), India (6), SG (2) & TW (2). They...