Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The current HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>A new methodology has been proposed and if implemented, index composition could change drastically in the next index rebal event.</li>
<li>There could be at least 20 changes to the index as the new methodology aims to increase index member count from 30 to 50 in December 2026.</li>
</ul>


The current HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
A new methodology has been proposed and if implemented, index composition could change drastically in the next index rebal event.
There could be at least 20 changes to the index as the new methodology aims to increase index member count from 30 to 50 in December 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec26: OLD Vs NEW Methodology; Mega Flows Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>An addition to the existing index themes will see 14 stocks added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> next week.</li>
<li>The trade is over US$2bn round-trip and there is a big funding impact for some of the existing index constituents.</li>
<li>Following the methodology change, more money could flow into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US)</a> as the free float market cap increases significantly.</li>
</ul>


An addition to the existing index themes will see 14 stocks added to the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) next week.
The trade is over US$2bn round-trip and there is a big funding impact for some of the existing index constituents.
Following the methodology change, more money could flow into the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) as the free float market cap increases significantly.


KWEB Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: 14 Adds and Over US$2bn Trade

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We screen the HS TECH eligible universe ahead of the September 2026 quarterly review.</li>
<li>One stock ranks inside the ADD Zone this cycle, paired with one Buffer Zone DELETE.</li>
<li>Both calls are mid-conviction, as the DELETE candidate is inside the Buffer Zone and close to the DELETE Zone.</li>
</ul>


We screen the HS TECH eligible universe ahead of the September 2026 quarterly review.
One stock ranks inside the ADD Zone this cycle, paired with one Buffer Zone DELETE.
Both calls are mid-conviction, as the DELETE candidate is inside the Buffer Zone and close to the DELETE Zone.


HS TECH Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

<ul>
<li>We review the proposed HS TECH rule changes and screen an early beneficiary list for the December 2026 rebalance.</li>
<li>Our screening returns 20 ADD candidates, 10 based on market value and 10 based on revenue growth.</li>
<li>We expect all 30 current constituents are retained. 10 MV based stocks to be mechanical and sales growth for 10 growth based stocks to be cut off at 30%.</li>
</ul>


We review the proposed HS TECH rule changes and screen an early beneficiary list for the December 2026 rebalance.
Our screening returns 20 ADD candidates, 10 based on market value and 10 based on revenue growth.
We expect all 30 current constituents are retained. 10 MV based stocks to be mechanical and sales growth for 10 growth based stocks to be cut off at 30%.


HS TECH Index Consultation: Rules and Beneficiary Analysis

Hong Kong

Innoscience is the largest 8-inch Integrated Device Manufacture (IDM) fully focused on GaN technology in the world.

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InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec26: OLD Vs NEW Methodology; Mega Flows Possible

There could be several high-impact additions in December 2026 if the newly proposed methodology is implemented. The one-way flow could be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

KWEB Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: 14 Adds and Over US$2bn Trade

KWEB rebalances at the close today. On average, the adds were up 2.8% on the 20th, up 3.6% on the 21st, and down 6.3% on the 24th. The funding adds...

Brian Freitas

HS TECH Sep 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast

We expect Iluvatar Corex to enter and Tongcheng Travel to be deleted, both MID conviction, as Tongcheng ranks 36th, the last Buffer Zone position.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HS TECH Index Consultation: Rules and Beneficiary Analysis

HSIL announced HS TECH consultation on proposed rule changes. In this note, we analysis the proposed new rules changes and preview the potential...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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