Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.</li>
<li>Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.</li>
<li>It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.</li>
</ul>


23H2 net loss significantly widened as cost control was not as tight as in 23H1. Expenses would remain high in 2024, since Innovent would continue expanding team in CVM field.
Innovent may think that not many players will join the competition of weight loss drug in short-term, but the actual commercialization of mazdutide after launch could be full of uncertainties.
It’s already good for Innovent to be breakeven in 2025. If Innovent breaks even in 2024, it will exceed expectations.Considering major policy shift, Innovent could experience a leap in valuation.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>XPEV US/1211 HK：Didi Autonomous Driving and GAC Aion joint venture approved to launch first commercial L4 model in 2025（///）</li>
<li>3759 HK/1548 HK/9926 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK/1801 HK：U.S. biologic drug ban may spread to more CRO companies, positive to Chinese innovative drug companies（/）</li>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK：Lei Jun announced that more than 100,000 people have ordered Xiaomi SU7, and the number of locked orders has exceeded 40,000.（///）</li>
</ul>


XPEV US/1211 HK：Didi Autonomous Driving and GAC Aion joint venture approved to launch first commercial L4 model in 2025（///）
3759 HK/1548 HK/9926 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK/1801 HK：U.S. biologic drug ban may spread to more CRO companies, positive to Chinese innovative drug companies（/）
1810 HK/1211 HK：Lei Jun announced that more than 100,000 people have ordered Xiaomi SU7, and the number of locked orders has exceeded 40,000.（///）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/1211 HK/3759HK/1548HK/9926HK/BGNE/9995HK/1801 HK/1810HK/LKNCY/LI/NIO/MNSO US

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar): 12 Month High of $9.8bn Inflows

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> reported a whopping 55% YoY net profit growth to RMB3 billion on just 13% YoY revenue growth to RMB6 billion in 2H23.</li>
<li>Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 52% YoY to RMB4 billion and its proportion to total revenue increased to 73% in 2H23 from 54% in 2H22 and 62% in 1H23.</li>
<li>Although Hansoh is not expected to receive marketing approval for any in-house innovative product in 2024, existing portfolio of innovative drugs will continue to drive the growth of the company.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) reported a whopping 55% YoY net profit growth to RMB3 billion on just 13% YoY revenue growth to RMB6 billion in 2H23.
Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 52% YoY to RMB4 billion and its proportion to total revenue increased to 73% in 2H23 from 54% in 2H22 and 62% in 1H23.
Although Hansoh is not expected to receive marketing approval for any in-house innovative product in 2024, existing portfolio of innovative drugs will continue to drive the growth of the company.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Performance Improves in 2H23; Innovative Drugs to Continue to Roar

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/1211 HK/3759HK/1548HK/9926HK/BGNE/9995HK/1801 HK/1810HK/LKNCY/LI/NIO/MNSO US

Didi and GAC Aion to launch first commercial L4 model in 2025, US biologic drug ban could benefit Chinese innovative drug companies, Xiaomi SU7...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar): 12 Month High of $9.8bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Performance Improves in 2H23; Innovative Drugs to Continue to Roar

Hansoh Pharmaceutical reported an impressive 55% YoY net profit growth in 2H23, driven by revenue from innovative drugs, which grew 52% YoY and...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

​Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Breakeven Is Still on Track Despite Soaring Costs

Loose cost control led to an expansion of losses in 23H2, but the goal of breakeven in 2025 is still within the plan, which could be achieved...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV/1211 HK/3759HK/1548HK/9926HK/BGNE/9995HK/1801 HK/1810HK/LKNCY/LI/NIO/MNSO US

​Didi and GAC Aion to launch first commercial L4 model in 2025, US biologic drug ban could benefit Chinese innovative drug companies, Xiaomi SU7...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar): 12 Month High of $9.8bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Performance Improves in 2H23; Innovative Drugs to Continue to Roar

​Hansoh Pharmaceutical reported an impressive 55% YoY net profit growth in 2H23, driven by revenue from innovative drugs, which grew 52% YoY and...

Tina Banerjee

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Didi and GAC Aion to launch first commercial L4 model in 2025, US biologic drug ban could benefit Chinese innovative drug companies, Xiaomi SU7...

Hansoh Pharmaceutical reported an impressive 55% YoY net profit growth in 2H23, driven by revenue from innovative drugs, which grew 52% YoY and...