Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-real-estate-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26031:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, and were covered in Real Estate, Information Technology, Financials and Communication Services.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyushu-railway-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23609:1" rel="noopener">Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7327:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Corp (4768 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Health Care and Industrials, and reduced on Energy and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Korea decreased in almost all industry groups led by Pharmaceuticals, Media &amp; Entertainment and Automobiles. Stocks that saw the most short covering were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korean-air-lines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11048:1" rel="noopener">Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seegene-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11483:1" rel="noopener">Seegene Inc (096530 KS)</a>.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Taiwan decreased in Technology Hardware, Materials and Capital Goods, while shorts increased in Semiconductors. Stocks that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macronix-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3247:1" rel="noopener">Macronix International (2337 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19789:1" rel="noopener">Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wiwynn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27838:1" rel="noopener">Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK), Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) and JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) while there was short covering on Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) and Wharf Holdings (4 HK). Shorts increased in Health Care and Consumer Discretionary, and were covered in Real Estate, Information Technology, Financials and Communication Services.Japan saw an increase in shorts on Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP), Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Canon Inc (7751 JP), Kyushu Railway Company (9142 JP), Inpex Corp (1605 JP) and Otsuka Corp (4768 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Financials, Health Care and Industrials, and reduced on Energy and Information Technology.Short Interest in Korea decreased in almost all industry groups led by Pharmaceuticals, Media &amp; Entertainment and Automobiles. Stocks that saw the most short covering were NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS), Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Korean Air Lines (003490 KS) and Seegene Inc (096530 KS).Short Interest in Taiwan decreased in Technology Hardware, Materials and Capital Goods, while shorts increased in Semiconductors. Stocks that saw the highest increase in shorts were Macronix International (2337 TT), TSMC (2330 TT), Elan Microelectronics (2458 TT) and Quanta Computer (2382 TT) while shorts were covered in Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) and Asia Cement (1102 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, JD, Wharf, SMIC, JPX, Itochu, Canon, Kyushu, Shinpoong, Seegene

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-real-estate-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26031:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care and Consumer Staples, and were covered in Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>Japan saw an increase in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a> and a reduction in shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in all sectors led by Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology and Energy.</p></div><div><p>Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, Semiconductors and Materials.</p></div><div><p>Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Materials.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK), Wharf Holdings (4 HK), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK), Meituan Dianping (3690 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK). Shorts increased in Real Estate, Health Care and Consumer Staples, and were covered in Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Information Technology.Japan saw an increase in shorts on Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) and Kubota Corp (6326 JP) and a reduction in shorts on Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP) and Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in all sectors led by Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology and Energy.Short Interest in Korea increased in most industry groups led by Technology Hardware, Media &amp; Entertainment, Semiconductors and Materials.Shorts in Taiwan were covered in Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Materials.

Asia Short Interest Weekly - Big Jump in Japan Shorts

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/035/original/2020-03-15_07-07-04.png?1584223644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123035"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE VALUE</strong> - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The<strong> -0.57% daily average rate of decline</strong> over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-opportunity-knocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37049" rel="noopener">Opportunity Knocks?</a> Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. <strong>Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/034/original/2020-03-15_06-53-01.png?1584222882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123034"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/036/original/2020-03-15_07-18-49.png?1584224347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/037/original/2020-03-15_07-23-55.png?1584224666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123037"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME</strong> - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been <strong>four days in the last twenty-eight years</strong> with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. <strong>All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains.</strong> Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the <em>Covid-19 recession</em> on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Who’s Swimming Naked?</a> cover those companies to which this does not apply. <strong>Overall</strong>, <strong>for Japan at least, it is different this time.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/039/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2024%2020.jpeg?1584225464" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123039"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/040/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2026%2031.jpeg?1584225508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123040"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/041/original/File%202020-03-15%207%2044%2021.jpeg?1584225894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123041"></figure><p></p><div class="content-caption">Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]</div><p><strong>CONTAINING COVID</strong> - According to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the peerless <strong>Global Change Data Lab</strong> at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/038/original/2020-03-15_07-34-05.png?1584225268" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123038"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oann.com</div><p><strong>KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON -</strong> Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them <em>sine populo</em>. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. </p><p><strong>A COVID-19 WORLD</strong> - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this<strong> once-in-a-decade</strong> opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.</p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our Opportunity Knocks? Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.Source • Japan AnalyticsIT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on Who’s Swimming Naked? cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]CONTAINING COVID - According to data from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. Source • oann.comKEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THREE-YEAR LOW</strong> - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our <strong>Results Sore</strong> - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> to rise above the <strong>Results Score</strong>. <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the <strong>Results Score</strong>.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The <strong>Results Score</strong> cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>LEADING INDICATOR</strong> - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the<strong> Forecast/Revision Score</strong>. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are <em>lagging</em> indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. </p><p><strong>SCORING METHODOLOGY</strong> - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-</p><ul>
<li><p><strong>Results Scores</strong> are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</p></li>
<li><p>The <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</p></li>
<li><p>The combined <strong>Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS)</strong> is the average of the <strong>Results Score</strong> and the<strong> Forecasts/Revision Score</strong>.</p></li>
<li>
<p>All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into <strong>Sector</strong>, <strong>Peer Group</strong> and <strong>Market Composite</strong> Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR SCORES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The <strong>Metals</strong> Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the<strong> Information Technology</strong> Sector has replaced the <strong>Internet</strong> and <strong>Telecoms</strong> Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. </p>
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/590/original/2020-02-13_03-51-57.png?1581538303" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117590"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to reach -0.65, while the Forecast /Revision  Score added 6bps thanks to upbeat initial FY2020 forecasts from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/591/original/2020-02-13_03-58-17.png?1581538602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117591"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now becoming more apparent. in the former camp are <strong>Banks</strong>, <strong>Energy</strong>,  <strong>Tech Hardware</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>, and <strong>Non-Bank Finance,</strong> while the latter includes<strong> Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Transportation &amp; Logistics</strong>, <strong>Chemicals</strong>, <strong>Building Materials</strong>, and <strong>Media</strong>. The largest one-day changes were in <strong>Energy</strong> (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a>) and <strong>Telecommunications</strong> (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>).  825 companies have yet to report, of which 385 are due today and a similar number on Friday.</p>

Source • Japan Analytics12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to reach -0.65, while the Forecast /Revision  Score added 6bps thanks to upbeat initial FY2020 forecasts from Shimano (7309 JP) and Yamaha Motor (7272 JP).Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - This quarter's Sector winners and losers are now becoming more apparent. in the former camp are Banks, Energy,  Tech Hardware, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, and Non-Bank Finance, while the latter includes Other Commercial Products, Transportation &amp; Logistics, Chemicals, Building Materials, and Media. The largest one-day changes were in Energy (Inpex (1605 JP)) and Telecommunications (Softbank Group (9984 JP)).  825 companies have yet to report, of which 385 are due today and a similar number on Friday.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 12th February ▲9449 6273 7309 ▼ 3769 6367 4324

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, JD, Wharf, SMIC, JPX, Itochu, Canon, Kyushu, Shinpoong, Seegene

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong...

Brian Freitas

Asia Short Interest Weekly - Big Jump in Japan Shorts

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 12th February ▲9449 6273 7309 ▼ 3769 6367 4324

12TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - 272 results and 122 revisions announcements were made yesterday. Our Results Score declined by another 18 basis points to...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)