Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (17 Aug 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co (8031 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co (8031 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex (1605 JP)</a> targets a 5% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Inpex (1605 JP) vs. Mitsui &amp; Co (8031 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long Mitsui &amp; Co (8031 JP) and short Inpex (1605 JP) targets a 5% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Mitsui & Co (8031 JP) Vs Inpex (1605 JP): Quant-Driven Pair Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. NDX100 +1.8%  SOX +3.3% vs. SPX +0.9% DOW +0.6%; Tech back ahead of Fed; Energy a different story as Oil fell on D-S worries; All eyes remain on CPI/Fed
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; Japan lead yesterday vs US..rarity; Expect continued Equity follow through; Seino HD(9076) -Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA-Path to Solid State Battery Commercialization?
NUGGET. Nidec Succession Resolution in Sight, but Nagamori Premium May Dissappear


Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

<ul><li>Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.</li><li>Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.</li><li>Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.</li></ul>

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Price Gauge
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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (17 Aug 2026)

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Mitsui & Co (8031 JP) Vs Inpex (1605 JP): Quant-Driven Pair Trade

5% target return in a quant-driven pair trade backed by a strong statistical relationship. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Tech Back as US Equities Well Bid; NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; ; Seino HD(9076) - Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA - Sees path to Solid State...

Mark Chadwick

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (17 Aug 2026)

​Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Mitsui & Co (8031 JP) Vs Inpex (1605 JP): Quant-Driven Pair Trade

5% target return in a quant-driven pair trade backed by a strong statistical relationship. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean...

Gaudenz Schneider

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan |BIG TECH BACK ! NUGGET: Nidec Succession Headaches-Resolution in Sight But...

Tech Back as US Equities Well Bid; NKY Futs +0.7% premium vs Cash; ; Seino HD(9076) - Massive Buyback, Div hike; TOYOTA - Sees path to Solid State...

Mark Chadwick

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.