Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inpex reported strong Q2 financial results with operating income rising 161% to ¥584 billion </li>
<li>The company revised its full-year OP guidance by 23% to ¥1,133 billion. It is still conservative </li>
<li>Inpex also announced a blockbuster buyback of 120 million shares, or 8.65% of its outstanding capital </li>
</ul>


Inpex reported strong Q2 financial results with operating income rising 161% to ¥584 billion 
The company revised its full-year OP guidance by 23% to ¥1,133 billion. It is still conservative 
Inpex also announced a blockbuster buyback of 120 million shares, or 8.65% of its outstanding capital 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

<ul>
<li>Today <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings (<a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/result/e-result20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a>, <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/pdf/e20220808_c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>), a revised <a href="https://www.inpex.co.jp/english/news/assets/pdf/20220808.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">full-year forecast</a> due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.</li>
<li>The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. </li>
<li>This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.</li>
</ul>


Today Inpex Corp (1605 JP) announced Q2 earnings (results, presentation), a revised full-year forecast due to higher crude and lower yen, an 11%-above-guidance dividend, and a big buyback.
The buyback is for up to 120mm shares spending up to ¥120bn, to run through year-end. Practically speaking, it is limited to 80mm shares or so at current price. 
This should be a non-negligible portion of Real World Float, and I expect the buyback to have impact over the next five months.


Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

<ul>
<li>The July-end TOPIX FFW Rebalance is larger than most expected, I believe. </li>
<li>There should be US$3.5bn one-way, with only a couple of major buy names.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicharm-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6246:1" rel="noopener">Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kubota-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12926:1" rel="noopener">Kubota Corp (6326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, and Shiseido (4911) are each US$170mm+ to sell.</li>
</ul>


The July-end TOPIX FFW Rebalance is larger than most expected, I believe. 
There should be US$3.5bn one-way, with only a couple of major buy names.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Unicharm Corp (8113 JP), Kubota Corp (6326 JP), Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), and Shiseido (4911) are each US$170mm+ to sell.


TOPIX Rebalance: End-July Rebal Is $3.5bn One-Way - Some Big Sell Names

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Inpex (1605) | Blockbuster Buyback

[EARNINGS] INPEX CORP(1605) Q2 FY12/2023 Net Profit 102.78 billion yen,13.7%YoY above Consensus 72.8 billion yen. Company Full Year Net Profit...

Mark Chadwick

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback

inpex (1605) has announced earnings (as expected), revised guidance (still light), a div hike (nice) and a big buyback. Language suggests it will...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Rebalance: End-July Rebal Is $3.5bn One-Way - Some Big Sell Names

The July-end TOPIX rebalance is only have the size of June but that's still big. US$3.5bn a side. There are several large names and lots of names...

Travis Lundy

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