European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>89.81% of InPost shares were tendered, comfortably clearing the 80% minimum acceptance condition, while all required regulatory approvals have already been obtained.</li>
<li>The offeror will announce by 23 September whether the offer is unconditional. Below 95%, the planned demerger and liquidation provides an alternative route to full ownership.</li>
<li>We recommended InPost at €15.10 in February. The €15.60 offer delivers a 3.31% gross return, or approximately 5.2% annualised assuming settlement by end-September.</li>
</ul>


89.81% of InPost shares were tendered, comfortably clearing the 80% minimum acceptance condition, while all required regulatory approvals have already been obtained.
The offeror will announce by 23 September whether the offer is unconditional. Below 95%, the planned demerger and liquidation provides an alternative route to full ownership.
We recommended InPost at €15.10 in February. The €15.60 offer delivers a 3.31% gross return, or approximately 5.2% annualised assuming settlement by end-September.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist</li>
<li>The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough</li>
<li>In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful</li>
</ul>


In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a smart locker specialist
The firms play in different geographies, making apples:apples comps tough
In the absence of better comps, comparing Hive Box to InPost still useful


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition of the de minimis rule.</li>
<li>Dutch customs data for July and August show an even bigger drop in non-EU small parcel volumes of 46% versus the prior sixmonth average.</li>
<li>Dutch Customs reports that e-commerce platforms and sellers are increasingly consolidating shipments into containerised bulk imports, storing inventory within the EU, and then dispatching domestic or intra-EU parcels to end consumers. </li>
</ul>


In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition of the de minimis rule.
Dutch customs data for July and August show an even bigger drop in non-EU small parcel volumes of 46% versus the prior sixmonth average.
Dutch Customs reports that e-commerce platforms and sellers are increasingly consolidating shipments into containerised bulk imports, storing inventory within the EU, and then dispatching domestic or intra-EU parcels to end consumers. 


What's News in Amsterdam - 2 September (E-commerce & Logistics)

<ul>
<li>Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.</li>
<li>Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.</li>
<li>At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.</li>
</ul>


Recommended all-cash €15.60 offer values InPost at €7.8bn, implying a 50% premium to the undisturbed price, backed by 48% irrevocable support, unanimous boards and fully committed certain-funds financing.
Transaction risk is low, primarily timing-driven: strong margin resilience, improving international ROIC and comfortable pro-forma debt service capacity reduce break risk, leaving regulatory duration and free-float tendering as key variables.
At €15.10, the 3.3% gross spread implies a ~90% market-implied success probability and mid-single-digit annualised returns on a Q4-2026 close, offering attractive risk-adjusted upside for event-driven investors.


Locker Secured: InPost’s Take-Private Trades Time, Not Uncertainty

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken | Dolf van den Brink to step down as CEO at the end of May • Wolters Kluwer | acquires StandardFusion for EUR 32m • Fagron | completes acquisition of University Compounding Pharmacy • TomTom | 4Q25 new car registrations expected to increase mid-single digit in Europe • Odido | revives plan for IPO in Amsterdam; possibly already this month • Dutch politics | the Netherlands heading for a minority coalition?</li><li>• Webinar | 𝗜𝗻𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗶𝗱?</li><li>• Corporate agenda | week 3 – 8</li></ul>

In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken | Dolf van den Brink to step down as CEO at the end of May • Wolters Kluwer | acquires StandardFusion for EUR 32m • Fagron | completes acquisition of University Compounding Pharmacy • TomTom | 4Q25 new car registrations expected to increase mid-single digit in Europe • Odido | revives plan for IPO in Amsterdam; possibly already this month • Dutch politics | the Netherlands heading for a minority coalition?• Webinar | 𝗜𝗻𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗶𝗱?• Corporate agenda | week 3 – 8

Luxembourg

InPost S.A. is an e-commerce enablement platform. InPost provides delivery services through its network of automated parcel machines, including those in the UK, as well as to-door couriers and fulfillment services to e-commerce merchants.

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InPost (INPST NA)

InPost: The Last Mile

Seven months after our BUY, InPost is almost over the line. Both hurdles we identified in February have been cleared. So what happens to the 10.19%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 3: Hive Box Vs InPost Group: Similarities & (BIG) Differences

In this insight we compare Hive Box to InPost, a publicly-traded smart locker and e-comm fulfillment specialist based in Poland. It's not a perfect...

Tracking Traffic

What's News in Amsterdam - 2 September (E-commerce & Logistics)

In yesterday’s edition, we cited French customs data showing a 30-40% drop in small parcel volumes coming from China as a result of the abolition...

The IDEA!

Locker Secured: InPost’s Take-Private Trades Time, Not Uncertainty

InPost’s €15.60 take-private is a high-certainty, timing-driven arb. With 48% hard support and certain-funds financing, downside risk is limited...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Inpost SA - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Aegon | starts EUR 227m share buyback today • BE Semiconductor Industries | records strong order intake in 25Q4 • Heineken |...

The IDEA!

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