Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> announced a TOB for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a> having agreed a deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a> to sell into a buyback.</li>
<li>Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it <a href="https://www.pasonagroup.co.jp/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=o93EYocia9U%3d&amp;tabid=100&amp;mid=460" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.</li>
<li>At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that's ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That's ¥2,870/share. Then there's the rest of the business.</li>
</ul>


Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that's ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That's ¥2,870/share. Then there's the rest of the business.


Pasona (2168) - Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

<ul>
<li>Last week I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-s-partial-offer-for-marketing-consultant-intage-4326" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112399" rel="noopener">NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) -</a> (with a spurious hyphen at the end). </li>
<li>In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. </li>
<li>So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.</li>
</ul>


Last week I wrote about NTT's Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) - (with a spurious hyphen at the end). 
In the last couple of days, there have apparently been a few blocks printed on the tape. I have received questions about pricing and pro-ration. 
So here I provide a set of 11 possible pro-ration cases, and suggest ways for traders and investors to think about the risks and possibilities.


NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-active-value-fund-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31492:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Active Value Fund PLC (NAVF LN)</a>’s jointly-held shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a> has declined from 11.28% to 9.52% of outstanding shares (disclosed on 20 September).</li>
<li>NAVF wants to take as much money off the table as possible as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>’s partial offer price represents an all-time high.</li>
<li>Our revised minimum proration is 53.31%. NAVF’s action suggests that the minimum acceptance condition, which requires a 20% minority acceptance rate, should be satisfied.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Active Value Fund PLC (NAVF LN)’s jointly-held shareholding in Intage Holdings (4326 JP) has declined from 11.28% to 9.52% of outstanding shares (disclosed on 20 September).
NAVF wants to take as much money off the table as possible as NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)’s partial offer price represents an all-time high.
Our revised minimum proration is 53.31%. NAVF’s action suggests that the minimum acceptance condition, which requires a 20% minority acceptance rate, should be satisfied.


Intage Holdings (4326 JP): NAVF Selldown and Proration for NTT’s Partial Offer

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> IPOs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> de-SPAC.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Doosan Robotics (454910 KS), ARM Holdings (1822695D US), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Integral Corporation (5842 JP) IPOs and Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) de-SPAC.
Event-Driven developments - JMDC (4483 JP), Intage Holdings (4326 JP), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a> sold a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.</li>
<li>Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. </li>
<li>The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. </li>
</ul>


In February 2022, Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) sold a chunk of JMDC (4483 JP) to Omron Corp (6645 JP) for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.
Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. 
The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. 


Omron Partial Offer for JMDC (4483) - The Engagement Is On! This Is the Script, This Is the Timing

Japan

Intage Holdings Inc provides marketing research services, marketing system solutions, and consulting services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Intage Holdings (4326 JP)

Pasona (2168) - Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

Pasona will get its bundle of cash selling Benefit One. That will leave ~¥135bn of net cash against a ¥60bn match-off of prepays vs A/R vs a ¥107bn...

Travis Lundy

NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

When I wrote this, 9 out of 11 cases presented, including my base case, had NAVF-held shares being tendered (whether they sell, or they tender)....

Travis Lundy