Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This morning, the <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/NTT-to-make-NTT-Data-wholly-owned-unit-via-tender-offer-worth-up-to-20bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> says <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> has decided, 5 years after taking Docomo private, to buy out minorities in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>NTT owns 58%. The article suggests a "30-40% premium" (¥3,900-4,200) "is likely", with the parent spending ¥2-3trln (¥3,380-5,060) on the deal. The numbers are a bit all over the place.</li>
<li>It will go limit up today to ¥3,492. A deal should be announced today after the close when NTT Data reports earnings. There's a cool index event too.</li>
</ul>


This morning, the Nikkei says NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) has decided, 5 years after taking Docomo private, to buy out minorities in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). 
NTT owns 58%. The article suggests a "30-40% premium" (¥3,900-4,200) "is likely", with the parent spending ¥2-3trln (¥3,380-5,060) on the deal. The numbers are a bit all over the place.
It will go limit up today to ¥3,492. A deal should be announced today after the close when NTT Data reports earnings. There's a cool index event too.


NTT (9432) To Overpay To Take Over NTT Data (9613) Subsidiary?

<ul>
<li>Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>. It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. </li>
<li>The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. </li>
<li>Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.</li>
</ul>


Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.


CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.</li>
<li>CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.</li>
<li>These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.</li>
</ul>


Some low liquidity stocks in the TOPIX Index carry a liquidity factor of 0.75x resulting in their actual index weights being smaller than their default weights.
These names are reviewed every April and if the liquidity factor of a stock gets removed, the stock will enjoy buying flows from passive trackers of TOPIX.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final predictions for the names that are likely to see their Liquidity Factors removed in April 2023.


TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

Japan

Intage Holdings Inc provides marketing research services, marketing system solutions, and consulting services.

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Intage Holdings (4326 JP)

NTT (9432) To Overpay To Take Over NTT Data (9613) Subsidiary?

It looks like NTT will take over NTT Data. That is big news, but not entirely unexpected. It will probably be too expensive. It will create an...

Travis Lundy

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross...

Arun George

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

TOPIX Index Upweights: Final Predictions for The "The Big April Basket” 2023

This insight (from Feb 2023) discusses the annual TOPIX Liquidity Factor (LF) removal event (which we call the "Big April Basket"). It might be a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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