Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.</li>
<li>CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.</li>
<li>Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company</li>
</ul>


Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company


Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. </li>
<li>Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. </li>
<li>New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. 
Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. 
New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.


Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

<ul>
<li>Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392</li>
<li>Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions</li>
<li>Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.</li>
</ul>


Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.


Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.</li>
<li>Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.</li>
<li>Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.
Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.
Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.


Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

<ul>
<li>The real point of Reuters’ article on Intel CEO “new” Foundry strategy is, imo, to pre-announce the possibility of a very large write off </li>
<li>TSMC discontinues GaN doesn’t matter, it’s not even 1% of revenue. 1) Auto demand is slow, GaN is lower margins, lot of competition  2) management has better things to do </li>
<li>UMC 6nm rumor, maybe yes but most likely with Intel’s manufacturing after 2030. UMC and Intel first start with 12nm in 2027-28.</li>
</ul>


The real point of Reuters’ article on Intel CEO “new” Foundry strategy is, imo, to pre-announce the possibility of a very large write off 
TSMC discontinues GaN doesn’t matter, it’s not even 1% of revenue. 1) Auto demand is slow, GaN is lower margins, lot of competition  2) management has better things to do 
UMC 6nm rumor, maybe yes but most likely with Intel’s manufacturing after 2030. UMC and Intel first start with 12nm in 2027-28.


Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

William Keating

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are management positions. Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers...

William Keating

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

William Keating

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

​Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are management positions. Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers...

William Keating

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

​Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...