Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.</li>
<li>TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase</li>
<li>CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025</li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.
TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase
CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025


TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung's pre-earnings release indicates revenue increased 11.6% QoQ and operating profit has increased almost 4x QoQ.</li>
<li>According to Garner, Q323 PC unit shipments rose 7.7% QoQ. While this is the second such quarter of sequential growth, shipments in the third quarter were still down 9% YoY</li>
<li>ASPEED's monthly revenue grew 32% sequentially in September. After 8 months of flat to no growth, this marks a clear turn around in the server market. </li>
</ul>


Samsung's pre-earnings release indicates revenue increased 11.6% QoQ and operating profit has increased almost 4x QoQ.
According to Garner, Q323 PC unit shipments rose 7.7% QoQ. While this is the second such quarter of sequential growth, shipments in the third quarter were still down 9% YoY
ASPEED's monthly revenue grew 32% sequentially in September. After 8 months of flat to no growth, this marks a clear turn around in the server market. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-curbs-chip-tools-china-nearly-finalized-posting-2023-10-05/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a> reported on Monday that a new round of export controls just hit the Office of Management and Budget office.</li><li>That means it’s already been finalized by the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, and Energy.</li><li>We are almost at the one-year anniversary of the October 7th export controls that tanked semiconductor stocks last year; this time, the stocks are looking way more sanguine.</li></ul>

Reuters reported on Monday that a new round of export controls just hit the Office of Management and Budget office.That means it’s already been finalized by the Departments of State, Defense, Commerce, and Energy.We are almost at the one-year anniversary of the October 7th export controls that tanked semiconductor stocks last year; this time, the stocks are looking way more sanguine.

October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

Q323 revenue $17.28 billion, +10.2% QoQ in US$ terms but still down 14.6% YoY. Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion, +10% QoQ. CEO C.C. Wei says his N3P...

William Keating

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @16/10/23

Samsung's pre-earnings release indicates revenue increased 11.6% QoQ & op profit has increased almost 4x QoQ. ASPEED's revenue grew 32% MoM in...

William Keating

Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

October Restrictions, AEHR Earnings, TSMC Monthly Revenue, and Intel's PSG Spin

October restrictions redux, Intel's PSG is worth $4-5 a share, and AEHR has a blowup quarter. Reuters reported on Monday that a new round of export...

Fabricated Knowledge

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