Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage on Softbank Group with a ¥6,300 target price and Neutral recommendation</li>
<li>We are cautious on global tech and consider that the main risk to the story but a recovery in China sentiment provides some offset</li>
<li>For Q3 results next week, we expect the defensive theme of the last two quarters to continue</li>
</ul>


In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage on Softbank Group with a ¥6,300 target price and Neutral recommendation
We are cautious on global tech and consider that the main risk to the story but a recovery in China sentiment provides some offset
For Q3 results next week, we expect the defensive theme of the last two quarters to continue


Softbank Group (Neutral) - Japan’s Global Tech Play: Initiation of Coverage and Q3 Preview

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Intel reported weak results at the end of last week, with its PC segment hit worst.</li>
<li>PC total addressable market to fall by 7.5% based on Intel's guidance.</li>
<li>Asus and Acer inventory levels show the problem impacting Intel, and for the industry as a whole right now.</li>
</ul>


Intel reported weak results at the end of last week, with its PC segment hit worst.
PC total addressable market to fall by 7.5% based on Intel's guidance.
Asus and Acer inventory levels show the problem impacting Intel, and for the industry as a whole right now.


Intel Results PC Readthrough: Inventory Correction to Get Worse in 1Q23E

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. </li>
<li>1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!</li>
<li>Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.</li>
</ul>


How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. 
1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!
Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>New China semiconductor restrictions could be announced by the Netherlands and Japan by end-January.</li>
<li>Realtek 4Q22 results -- Signals weakness for companies serving the PC market, and could get worse in 1Q23E.</li>
<li>Western Digital &amp; Kioxia could merge NAND flash units to create a rival to Samsung.</li>
</ul>


New China semiconductor restrictions could be announced by the Netherlands and Japan by end-January.
Realtek 4Q22 results -- Signals weakness for companies serving the PC market, and could get worse in 1Q23E.
Western Digital &amp; Kioxia could merge NAND flash units to create a rival to Samsung.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dutch & Japan China Restrictions End-January, Realtek Results Show Pain in PCs

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.</li>
<li>Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.</li>
<li>These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Softbank Group (Neutral) - Japan’s Global Tech Play: Initiation of Coverage and Q3 Preview

In this deep dive report, we initiate coverage at Neutral with a ¥6,300 target price. We think global tech will struggle but a recovery in China...

Kirk Boodry

Intel Results PC Readthrough: Inventory Correction to Get Worse in 1Q23E

Intel has said that sales are well below real demand since industry PC inventories are being slashed right now. Asus and Acer inventory levels show...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel 4Q22: How Many Kitchen Sinks?

Intel's massive guide down for 1Q23 is just the latest kitchen sink for the perpetually overoptimistic Pat Gelsinger, who is going to need to come...

Aaron Gabin

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dutch & Japan China Restrictions End-January, Realtek Results Show Pain in PCs

Also- The U.S. military is preparing for Speaker of the House McCarthy to visit Taiwan; and Western Digital & Kioxia could merge NAND flash units...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Is The Semiconductor Collapse Slowing?

One week before most chip companies report revenues, the semiconductor market seems to be slowing its decline. Although the market hasn't yet hit...

Jim Handy

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