Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.</li>
<li>Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.</li>
<li>Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.</li>
</ul>


Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.
Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.
Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.


After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control</li>
<li>We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)</li>
<li>We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control
We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)
We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS


Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Industrial gases like oxygen, nitrogen, argon are invisible infrastructure powering every steel plant, hospital, and semiconductor fab India builds.</li>
<li>Steel capacity targeting 300 MT by FY31, semiconductor fabs worth INR 1.6 lakh crore, healthcare expansion, and green hydrogen mission accelerate demand.</li>
<li>Linde India leads on contract stickiness and tech edge, Inox Air Products on scale, Taiyo Nippon Sanso on semiconductor specialty gases.</li>
</ul>


Industrial gases like oxygen, nitrogen, argon are invisible infrastructure powering every steel plant, hospital, and semiconductor fab India builds.
Steel capacity targeting 300 MT by FY31, semiconductor fabs worth INR 1.6 lakh crore, healthcare expansion, and green hydrogen mission accelerate demand.
Linde India leads on contract stickiness and tech edge, Inox Air Products on scale, Taiyo Nippon Sanso on semiconductor specialty gases.


Industrial Gas Sector: Who Stands to Gain from India's Capex Supercycle?

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Nvidia's advancements in Nematron models, push for open source in AI</li><li>Comparison to Intel's strategic moves with Linux Foundation, potential competition with customers in open sourced AI models</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Nvidia's advancements in Nematron models, push for open source in AIComparison to Intel's strategic moves with Linux Foundation, potential competition with customers in open sourced AI modelsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 156: Evolving Dynamics of AI Infrastructure, Open Source Agents, Meta's ASIC Roadmap

<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

In 2000, America's highest-return giants looked like the safest quality stocks. Most then lagged the market for 25 years. Several warning signs...

Urbem Capital

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Industrial Gas Sector: Who Stands to Gain from India's Capex Supercycle?

Industrial gases are essential infrastructure in India, fueling growth in steel, healthcare, and semiconductor industries with Linde India, Inox...

Nimish Maheshwari

EP 156: Evolving Dynamics of AI Infrastructure, Open Source Agents, Meta's ASIC Roadmap

The article discusses Nvidia's advancements in Nematron models and promotion of open source variants, with mixed opinions on their strategy and...

The Circuit

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

In 2000, America's highest-return giants looked like the safest quality stocks. Most then lagged the market for 25 years. Several warning signs...

Urbem Capital

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Industrial Gas Sector: Who Stands to Gain from India's Capex Supercycle?

​Industrial gases are essential infrastructure in India, fueling growth in steel, healthcare, and semiconductor industries with Linde India, Inox...

Nimish Maheshwari

EP 156: Evolving Dynamics of AI Infrastructure, Open Source Agents, Meta's ASIC Roadmap

The article discusses Nvidia's advancements in Nematron models and promotion of open source variants, with mixed opinions on their strategy and...

The Circuit

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

Industrial gases are essential infrastructure in India, fueling growth in steel, healthcare, and semiconductor industries with Linde India, Inox...