Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) </li>
<li>Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  </li>
<li>Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.</li>
</ul>


Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) 
Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  
Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&amp;D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.


Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC’s renewed push into 6nm, paired with Intel’s strategic overhaul under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, raises the likelihood of an Intel equity stake in UMC.</li>
<li>We maintain our Structural Long view on UMC and reiterate our original thesis: a deeper partnership via a stake from Intel would be transformative.</li>
<li>At 12.5x trailing PER with a net cash position, UMC remains attractively valued as a strategic asset -- especially if can essentially have its own 'Group' advanced fabs with Intel.</li>
</ul>


UMC’s renewed push into 6nm, paired with Intel’s strategic overhaul under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, raises the likelihood of an Intel equity stake in UMC.
We maintain our Structural Long view on UMC and reiterate our original thesis: a deeper partnership via a stake from Intel would be transformative.
At 12.5x trailing PER with a net cash position, UMC remains attractively valued as a strategic asset -- especially if can essentially have its own 'Group' advanced fabs with Intel.


Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Japan’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>.  </li>
<li>Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&amp;D costs, market and profitability challenges.</li>
<li>Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry</li>
</ul>


Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US).  
Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&amp;D costs, market and profitability challenges.
Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

<ul>
<li>US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.</li>
<li>What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   </li>
<li>Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. </li>
</ul>


US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   
Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. 


US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

Patrick Liao

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

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Semi News: Power GaN, Samsung and Intel’s Foundry Margins (And Wafer Price), Chinese GPU IPO

​Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

Nicolas Baratte

Our Thesis: Intel Should Take a Stake in UMC -- New Signals Reinforce the Case

​UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

​Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

Patrick Liao

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

​US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Potential oversupply of Power GaN, similar to SiC situation. Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm due to low yields. Chinese GPU companies...

UMC's partnership with Intel, including a possible equity stake, could be transformative and strategically valuable for both companies. Latest...

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...