Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.</li>
<li>The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  </li>
</ul>


Reports of Samsung securing 2nm customers (Nvidia, Qualcomm), but AMD is saying that TSMC has the best and only 2nm, Nvidia saying there’s no alternative to TSMC CoWoS.   
Competition at 2nm / 18A is already over. Chips tape-out are rolling out. If Intel, Samsung can gain Foundry customers, it is for the next node 14A in 2027-28.
The difficulty for Intel and Samsung is that TSMC is a lot faster to develop PDK, qualify process, tape-out chips. The total cost of chipdesign at US$0.5-1bn is another hurdle.  


Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.</li>
<li>Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   </li>
<li>While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US).  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%</li><li>US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges</li><li>Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challengesTrump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel (INTC US)</a> is starting to look less competitive.</li>
<li>According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
</li>
<li>While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.

While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.


TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Intel Corp (INTC US)

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

Patrick Liao

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Just Listen to Jensen (And Lisa): TSMC, Intel, Samsung

​Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch "Surge O1" With 3nm.

​Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

Patrick Liao

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

​TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung allegedly secures 2nm customers. AMD claims TSMC has the only 2nm. Competition at 2nm is over, chips rolling out. Intel, Samsung face...

Xiaomi set to launch new products on the 22nd, including powerful Surge O1 chip potentially manufactured by TSMC, challenging MediaTek and Qualcomm.

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...