Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY</li>
<li>TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high</li>
<li>The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule


Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s 18A technology.</li>
<li>It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided</li>
<li>AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions</li>
<li>Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.</li>
</ul>


AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.


AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>April customs numbers report that tariff collections may double in April; however, at an annualized rate, it would fall well short of the Administration's promises.</li>
<li>The Administration has adjusted its narrative to focus on bringing high-tech manufacturing to the U.S. with more robots than blue-collar line workers.</li>
<li>GDP surprisingly declined in the first quarter, indicating a coming recession.  Media focus is on the drag from net exports, but ignores the inventory build and poor consumption numbers.</li>
</ul>


April customs numbers report that tariff collections may double in April; however, at an annualized rate, it would fall well short of the Administration's promises.
The Administration has adjusted its narrative to focus on bringing high-tech manufacturing to the U.S. with more robots than blue-collar line workers.
GDP surprisingly declined in the first quarter, indicating a coming recession.  Media focus is on the drag from net exports, but ignores the inventory build and poor consumption numbers.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders

Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

MAGA Will It Work?: A REALITY CHECK

April customs numbers report that tariff collections may double in April; however, it would fall short of Trump promises. GDP surprisingly declined...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

​TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders

Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

MAGA Will It Work?: A REALITY CHECK

April customs numbers report that tariff collections may double in April; however, it would fall short of Trump promises. GDP surprisingly declined...

David Mudd

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...