Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.</li>
<li>Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 


TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Will <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> work on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?</li>
<li>Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  </li>
</ul>


Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) work on Intel Corp (INTC US)'s Foundry Services (IFS) and invest about 20% share?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) Chairman and CEO Dr. CC Wei has promised to further invest USD$100bn to establish capacity in the US; what's the reasoning behind this?
Given the current US tariff issue, what is the best investment advice?  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion</li>
<li>The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago</li>
<li>Altera's CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell</li>
</ul>


Intel yesterday announced that it was selling a 51% stake of its Altera business to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion
The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to acquire the company over a decade ago
Altera's CEO, Intel veteran Sandra Rivera, will be replaced with a new CEO, Raghib Hussain, formerly president of Products and Technologies at Marvell


Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

<ul>
<li>PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.</li>
<li>~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.</li>
<li>There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.</li>
</ul>


PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

Intel is selling a 51% stake in Altera to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion. The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to...

William Keating

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

​TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Key Questions for TSMC 1Q25 Earnings Conference

​Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

Patrick Liao

Intel Offloads Altera Majority Stake At Steep Discount

Intel is selling a 51% stake in Altera to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion. The deal values Altera at $8.75 billion, roughly half what Intel paid to...

William Keating

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

​PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Is TSMC considering partnership with Intel for Foundry Services? What's the reasons for TSMC to further investing $100bn in US capacity?...

PC unit growth accelerates in 2025, driven by Apple and Lenovo, but dreams of a Windows 10 and AI PC upgrade pose risks of over-building and over...