Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There is expected to be US$600m to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight</a> ETFs at the same time as the selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There is expected to be US$600m to sell in Broadcom from the Technology Select Sector and Invesco S&amp;P500 Equal Weight ETFs at the same time as the selling from VanEck Vectors Semiconductor.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?</li>
<li>TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex </li>
<li>MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy </li>
</ul>


TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position &amp; Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC Chairman Dr. CC Wei pointed out that TSMC builds production lines everywhere to meet customers' demands. TSMC has never gone against this principle.  </li>
<li>On the 3rd of March, U.S. President Trump and TSMC Chairman jointly announced at the White House that TSMC would reinvest at least $100 billion in the U.S.</li>
<li>Regarding concerns from the public that TSMC might gradually shift its production focus to the U.S., TSMC made it clear that this would not happen.</li>
</ul>


TSMC Chairman Dr. CC Wei pointed out that TSMC builds production lines everywhere to meet customers' demands. TSMC has never gone against this principle.  
On the 3rd of March, U.S. President Trump and TSMC Chairman jointly announced at the White House that TSMC would reinvest at least $100 billion in the U.S.
Regarding concerns from the public that TSMC might gradually shift its production focus to the U.S., TSMC made it clear that this would not happen.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Held Press Conference Regarding Further Investment of USD$100bn in US.

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News </li>
</ul>


TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Held Press Conference Regarding Further Investment of USD$100bn in US.

TSMC Chairman reaffirms commitment to meeting customer demands globally, including $100 billion reinvestment in the U.S. Production focus will not...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$1.2bn

No constituent changes but big capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Broadcom will have...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

​TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

​TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Held Press Conference Regarding Further Investment of USD$100bn in US.

​TSMC Chairman reaffirms commitment to meeting customer demands globally, including $100 billion reinvestment in the U.S. Production focus will not...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

​TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC considers joint venture with Intel, addresses US expansion concerns. Mediatek competes with Qualcomm in the 6G race at MWC Barcelona.

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

TSMC Chairman reaffirms commitment to meeting customer demands globally, including $100 billion reinvestment in the U.S. Production focus will not...

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...