Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>After the peak of 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> could present products around 1Q26.</li>
<li>TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. </li>
</ul>


After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> established "Intel Foundry Services" in 2021, but it has not shown notable performance until now.</li>
<li>There is some pessimism regarding providing foundry services in the US.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> should provide foundry services to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> and potentially other common clients as well.  </li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) established "Intel Foundry Services" in 2021, but it has not shown notable performance until now.
There is some pessimism regarding providing foundry services in the US.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) should provide foundry services to Intel Corp (INTC US) and potentially other common clients as well.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> respectively.</li>
<li>Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.</li>
<li>The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.</li>
</ul>


The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) respectively.
Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.
The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.


The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> CEO Mr. Jensen Huang announced plans to establish an offshore headquarters in Taipei during his visit this June.</li>
<li>From a geopolitical perspective, Taiwan is one of the focal points where the U.S. and China could potentially be in conflict. </li>
<li>Focusing on AI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is currently attracting significant attention, but the decision to establish an offshore headquarters in Taipei is raising curiosity.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Mr. Jensen Huang announced plans to establish an offshore headquarters in Taipei during his visit this June.
From a geopolitical perspective, Taiwan is one of the focal points where the U.S. and China could potentially be in conflict. 
Focusing on AI, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is currently attracting significant attention, but the decision to establish an offshore headquarters in Taipei is raising curiosity.


Nvidia (NVDA.US): To Establish Offshore Headquarter in Taiwan.

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competition</li><li>Analysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia's market dominance and revenue growth</li><li>Consideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion on the future of Nvidia and the semiconductor industry, including concerns about growth and competitionAnalysis of the potential impact of custom ASICs on Nvidia's market dominance and revenue growthConsideration of the performance and prospects of major tech companies like Apple, AMD, Intel, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in relation to AI and cloud software developments.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

"Intel Foundry Services" has not performed well, leading to doubts about its US foundry services. TSMC may step in to provide foundry services for...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Nvidia (NVDA.US): To Establish Offshore Headquarter in Taiwan.

NVIDIA CEO plans to establish offshore headquarters in Taipei, raising geopolitical and AI industry interest. Taiwan is a focal point where the...

Patrick Liao

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

The discussion focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's performance, with questions raised about its future growth and...

The Circuit

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

​TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

"Intel Foundry Services" has not performed well, leading to doubts about its US foundry services. TSMC may step in to provide foundry services for...

Patrick Liao

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

​US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Nvidia (NVDA.US): To Establish Offshore Headquarter in Taiwan.

​NVIDIA CEO plans to establish offshore headquarters in Taipei, raising geopolitical and AI industry interest. Taiwan is a focal point where the...

Patrick Liao

Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

The discussion focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's performance, with questions raised about its future growth and...

The Circuit

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

NVIDIA CEO plans to establish offshore headquarters in Taipei, raising geopolitical and AI industry interest. Taiwan is a focal point where the...