Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compiled the share price movements of 183 global travel/mobility stocks to uncover general trends and identify rotation and laggard plays   </li>
<li>Tourist countries like Greece, Spain and Turkey did very well. The U.S. also performed well, almost all names closed the year higher except for those with unique problems  </li>
<li>China and anything that is China-focused performed the worst, even companies that delivered great results are not spared and currently trading at cheap valuations </li>
</ul>


We compiled the share price movements of 183 global travel/mobility stocks to uncover general trends and identify rotation and laggard plays   
Tourist countries like Greece, Spain and Turkey did very well. The U.S. also performed well, almost all names closed the year higher except for those with unique problems  
China and anything that is China-focused performed the worst, even companies that delivered great results are not spared and currently trading at cheap valuations 


2023 Winners & Losers: Laggards and Rotation Plays for Global Travel/Mobility Stocks

Equity Bottom-Up

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices </li>
<li>However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans </li>
<li>Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  </li>
</ul>



InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) (Indigo) has turnaround and is on path to achieve record profits in FY2024 on strong demand, stable FX and lower jet fuel prices 
However, engine problems will hurt capacity deployment in 4QFY24 and FY2025, and the engine manufacturer has been very vague and unreliable in presenting its remedial plans 
Share price near all-time high and valuations (PE, EV/EBITDAR) are expensive compared to global LCCs. TP of INR2,513 (14% DOWNSIDE) pegged to 15x FY2025 PE (top-end LCC cycle)  


Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

India

InterGlobe Aviation Limited provides passenger airlines services. The Company offers ground management, air transportation, terminal maintenance, and other services. InterGlobe Aviation conducts its business globally.

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InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)

2023 Winners & Losers: Laggards and Rotation Plays for Global Travel/Mobility Stocks

This report provides a quick peek on the best and worst performers in the world of global aviation and the industries that revolve around it. We...

Mohshin Aziz

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...

Mohshin Aziz

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2023 Winners & Losers: Laggards and Rotation Plays for Global Travel/Mobility Stocks

This report provides a quick peek on the best and worst performers in the world of global aviation and the industries that revolve around it. We...

Mohshin Aziz

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO IN | SELL | TP: INR2,513): Not Worth a King's Ransom

​Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...

Mohshin Aziz

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

Indigo has turnaround is forecasted to deliver record FY2024. But major engine issues will impact FY2025 capacity deployment and the uncertainties...