CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Over the past year, what was good for the US dollar was bad for the stockmarket.</li><li>The world’s reserve currency lubricates (or seizes up) financial markets.</li><li>A weak dollar is bullish, and a strong dollar, bearish. The dollar was strong (the euro weak) until September, and that put downward pressure on stocks. </li></ul>

Over the past year, what was good for the US dollar was bad for the stockmarket.The world’s reserve currency lubricates (or seizes up) financial markets.A weak dollar is bullish, and a strong dollar, bearish. The dollar was strong (the euro weak) until September, and that put downward pressure on stocks. 

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.</li><li>Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.</li><li>Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.</li><li>The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.</li></ul>

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC raised the FF rate by 75bp for the third consecutive time, taking it to 3-3.25% as expected. We expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 5% in Mar’23.</li>
<li>The more aggressive monetary tightening by the US (outlined in the SER) will likely bring forward the US recession to Q2CY23 (two quarters ahead of our previous forecast). </li>
<li>USD will continue to strengthen, weakening the prospects for emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Vietnam will be safe havens, and Japan will continue riding the weak Yen. Avoid EM-creditor China. </li>
</ul>


FOMC raised the FF rate by 75bp for the third consecutive time, taking it to 3-3.25% as expected. We expect the Fed Funds rate to peak at 5% in Mar’23.
The more aggressive monetary tightening by the US (outlined in the SER) will likely bring forward the US recession to Q2CY23 (two quarters ahead of our previous forecast). 
USD will continue to strengthen, weakening the prospects for emerging markets. India, Indonesia, Vietnam will be safe havens, and Japan will continue riding the weak Yen. Avoid EM-creditor China. 


FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>V-shaped World economic rebound well-underway</li>
<li>Risk of policy-makers overstimulating</li>
<li>Financial stability a greater risk than faster high street inflation</li>
<li>Liquidity cycle more cyclical than ever</li>
<li>US dollar vulnerable to further falls</li>
<li>House prices likely to see bigger gains</li>
<li>Policy-makers will have to address these two imbalances</li>
</ul>


V-shaped World economic rebound well-underway
Risk of policy-makers overstimulating
Financial stability a greater risk than faster high street inflation
Liquidity cycle more cyclical than ever
US dollar vulnerable to further falls
House prices likely to see bigger gains
Policy-makers will have to address these two imbalances


Taper Talk – Will The Global Liquidity Boom End With A Whimper Or A Bang?

<ul>
<li>
Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar</li>
<li>
Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers</li>
<li>
Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar</li>
<li>
5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€</li>
</ul>



Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar

Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers

Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar

5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€


2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

United States

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to follow the Deutsche Bank Long USD Currency Portfolio Index which tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of the six major world currencies - the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona & Swiss franc.

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Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul (UUP US)

The Dollar Is Back

Over the past year, what was good for the US dollar was bad for the stockmarket. The world’s reserve currency lubricates (or seizes up) financial...

ByteTree Asset Management

GMO Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win. Today’s...

Fund Newsletters

FOMC Acknowledges Its Policy Error and Will Front-Load Rate Hikes

FOMC has tightened 300bp in Mar-Sep'22 & is set to tighten another 125bp by end-22. US recession will likely begin Q2CY23. Avoid stagflationary...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Taper Talk – Will The Global Liquidity Boom End With A Whimper Or A Bang?

Global Liquidity really matters for asset prices. It is starting to inflect. Taper talk is rising. High Street inflation may not be the threat:...

Michael J. Howell

2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

Capital flows drive currencies and capital is beginning to quit the US. The shadow that looms over the US dollar is the whopping US$5-6 trillion...

Michael J. Howell

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