Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.</li><li>A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.</span></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch.A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of sell-off in equities have gained ground again after the FOMC meeting Wednesday, revealing the Fed’s intend of lowering the monthly redemption cap on USTs from USD 60 bn. to USD 25 bn.The slight dovish narrative is back in market pricing, and the mix of dovish central bank vibes and added liquidity will likely rule markets in the coming weeks, as economic data from the US will continue its run.

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Stock Trader's Almanac popularised Sell in May and go away. Repeated underperformance of the Dow Jones index during the six-month period from May to October lent credence to this.</li>
<li>Twenty four years of data (May 2000 to April 2024) confirms the continuation of Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct.</li>
<li>This outperformance gets exaggerated during election years. S&amp;P 500 generated outperformance of 7.27% with Dow Jones delivering 9.18% followed by Nasdaq at 0.52%.</li>
</ul>


Stock Trader's Almanac popularised Sell in May and go away. Repeated underperformance of the Dow Jones index during the six-month period from May to October lent credence to this.
Twenty four years of data (May 2000 to April 2024) confirms the continuation of Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct.
This outperformance gets exaggerated during election years. S&amp;P 500 generated outperformance of 7.27% with Dow Jones delivering 9.18% followed by Nasdaq at 0.52%.


Sell in May & Go Away. In 2024, Should You?

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.</li>
<li>Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.</li>
<li>Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.</li>
</ul>


Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.


<ul>
<li>A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.</li>
<li>Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.</li>
<li>That said, the S&amp;P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.</li>
</ul>


A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.
Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.
That said, the S&amp;P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.


<ul><li>Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.</li><li>The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.</li><li>It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).</li></ul>

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Portfolio Watch – Time for liquidity bets

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly portfolio watch. A slightly positive week for our macro portfolio, which after a couple of days of...

Steno Research

Sell in May & Go Away. In 2024, Should You?

Sell in May & go away. Nov to Apr outperformance over May to Oct persists. It gets exaggerated during elections. Election years magnifies this....

Mint Finance

Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a...

Cam Hui

This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish. Growth stocks are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value...

Cam Hui

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak...

Steno Research

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