HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
Strong YTD performance with volatility: Systematic quantitative equity strategies have strong but volatile performance in 2024, with momentum and reversal factors driving returns, particularly in U.S. technology (AI sectors).</li>
<li>
Key macroeconomic drivers: Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions (especially involving China), and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election will be major catalysts influencing equity markets through year-end.</li>
<li>
Sector-Specific opportunities: AI-driven tech and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from rate cuts, but overvaluation risks persist. Value and quality sectors in Europe and defensive strategies (e.g. reversal) hedge market corrections.</li>
</ul>



Strong YTD performance with volatility: Systematic quantitative equity strategies have strong but volatile performance in 2024, with momentum and reversal factors driving returns, particularly in U.S. technology (AI sectors).

Key macroeconomic drivers: Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions (especially involving China), and the upcoming U.S. Presidential election will be major catalysts influencing equity markets through year-end.

Sector-Specific opportunities: AI-driven tech and consumer discretionary stocks benefit from rate cuts, but overvaluation risks persist. Value and quality sectors in Europe and defensive strategies (e.g. reversal) hedge market corrections.


Systematic Quantitative Equity Strategies Outlook: 9/15/24 – Year-End

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.</li>
<li>As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... </li>
<li>...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV</li>
</ul>


While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.
As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... 
...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV


Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below</li>
<li>False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Additionally, we are starting to see signs that lead us to believe the bottom is in for SPX, IWM, QQQ, and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT,DRAM,WGMI); more on this below
False breakdowns and bullish inflections on XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM, WGMI, EEM. DXY breaking below major support. Risk-on signals expanding


Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform</li>
<li>Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform
Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals


Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Systematic Quantitative Equity Strategies Outlook: 9/15/24 – Year-End

Design a tactical, long-tilted portfolio to express systematic investing outlook with long-short Smart-Beta, Sector and Region-Specific ETFs.

William Mann

Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

Warning Signs $RSP; Remain Overweight and Buy Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV; Still Cautious on $QQQ and Now Also $IWM; Downgrading Utilities...

Vermilion Research

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names?; SPX and IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding

Bottom in Place for A.I./Technology Names? $XLK $QQQ $CHAT $SOXX $DRAM $WGMI; $SPX and $IWM Breakouts; Risk-On Signals Expanding. ACIW, PEGA, QTWO,...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the move down in bond yields and impact on our favourite...

Rikki Malik

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