Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook.</li><li>Moreover, there is a possibility that the Thai economy has reached its trough and could start recovering from 2Q to 4Q24, buoyed by the initiation of government budget spending, previously delayed for over six months.</li><li>Consequently, we anticipate that the SET Index might have already hit its bottom, though the magnitude of a potential rebound will hinge on the pace of the global economic recovery and the implementation of further government stimulus measures.</li></ul>

However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook.Moreover, there is a possibility that the Thai economy has reached its trough and could start recovering from 2Q to 4Q24, buoyed by the initiation of government budget spending, previously delayed for over six months.Consequently, we anticipate that the SET Index might have already hit its bottom, though the magnitude of a potential rebound will hinge on the pace of the global economic recovery and the implementation of further government stimulus measures.

Thai Economy Expected to Have Bottomed Out

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350 points.</li><li>The figure is expected to improve slightly at +0.1% QoQ and +0.2% YoY (vs. 4Q23 GDP at +0% QoQ and +0.1% YoY), and the inflation rate in April should continue to slow down, expected at +0.6% MoM and +2.4% YoY (vs. +0.8% MoM and +2.4% YoY in March).</li><li>KTX anticipates the Fed to signal a more tightening stance in its upcoming FOMC meeting.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350 points.The figure is expected to improve slightly at +0.1% QoQ and +0.2% YoY (vs. 4Q23 GDP at +0% QoQ and +0.1% YoY), and the inflation rate in April should continue to slow down, expected at +0.6% MoM and +2.4% YoY (vs. +0.8% MoM and +2.4% YoY in March).KTX anticipates the Fed to signal a more tightening stance in its upcoming FOMC meeting.

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

United States

Invesco Solar ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund tracks the MAC Global Solar ENergy Index which market cap weights securities in the solar energy industry including all solar technologies, the entire value chain (raw materials, manufacturing, installers, solar plant operations, financing), & related solar equipment such as power inverters/ encapsulates.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN US)

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

Thai Economy Expected to Have Bottomed Out

However, KTX analysis suggests limited downside risk, as the market has already factored in a tepid economic outlook. Moreover, there is a...

Krungthai XSpring

EU's 1Q24 GDP & China's PMIs

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,370 points (10-day/ 25-day EMA) and the support at 1,355/1,350...

Krungthai XSpring

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)